Interestingly, the states that most are flocking to now like TX and FL are the most vulnerable to temperature increases, and the states most insulated from this (northern states) have been being moved away from for years.A shift up in temperatures over the next few decades could flip the current migration trend and see people in the south moving north. 

It's been nothing but straight up for over a decade and now there are significant headwinds like rising mortgage rates, new permits (relative to the rate of in-migration), etc.4) Would not have received any cash flow, due to the high property taxes and other ongoing expenses.

Our market has always been more conservative then some of the migration destinations and I actually like that, but we have been firecly competitive with 10-20 offers on many deals, about 65% of listings selling over asking.- single family home prices are up 10.2% YoY- we are down to a median 6 days on market- we have closed 37 deals YTD, are under contract for 27- I have not had a single buyer quit because of rates, but I hear a lot about buyer fatigue after writing many offers without success - they plan to try again "later"- sellers who have been on the fence are listing now, because they see rates go up for their next purchase; so far they have been holding out for even higher prices, now they are incentiviced to make a moveAs an investor:- for the first time we are increasing rent outside of turnover (covid was my excuse to not raise rents the last 2 years, but have to keep up at least with wage growth)- we buy properties that are larger and in higher priced neighborhoods to capture inflation and depreciation- if I can't find good projects in the suburbs we will turn over some of the oldest properties and upgrade them for higher rents- long term contractors are raising prices on us, I don't blame them

There are always shifts.....hotels in urban centers, that depending on giant conferences, dependent on business travel are hurting....resort hotels in FL doing well.Some office buildings are hurting....I think Blackstone just allowed one to default in Manhattan.Appears to be a fairly significant migration from West Coast and NE coasts to South and Southeast.....that probably won't be overnight...so crash maybe not the right word, but maybe shift....Still lots and lots and lots of cash pouring into real estate....probably out of stock market it seems, certainly out of fixed income.Crash could depend on so many things we can't predict or see coming.....war in Middle East, Putin presses the button, North Korea starts something, China trys to take Taiwan, maybe some kind of tech AI or ML, wipes out middle managers that have all bought houses in certain price ranges, maybe a certain generation demands WFH...so they can live anywhere...not just old traditional job centers....maybe today's students don't need to go to university centers like Boston, Berkeley, Austin, and all of the sudden you have 50,000 students in a city that no longer need housing.

Inflation could be high and market rent flat if you have a lot of net outflow migration.

@Will CruzReplying back to the title of your post.I think we are in for a decrease in the rapid pace of home price increases, multiple no contingency offers and overall hype around the country with the 30 year average primary mortgage climbing over 5 and a quarter.Nevertheless, Tampa is landlocked on 3 sides and we don’t foresee inbound net migration slowing anytime soon.

Overall, the asset is positioned in a submarket currently projected to see exceptional rent, population, and income growth over the near and long term as a result of in-migration to the area.

Per this NY Times article, the average American knows around 600 people.https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/science/the-average-american-knows-how-many-people.html#:~:text=The%20average%20American%20knows%20about,do%20you%20know%20named%20Kevin%3FPer the US Census Bureau, the average American moves 11.7 time in their life, which based upon an approximate lifespan of 84 years, works out to be about every 7 years.https://www.census.gov/topics/population/migration/guidance/calculating-migration-expectancy.html#:~:text=Using%202007%20ACS%20data%2C%20it,one%20move%20per%20single%20yearSo, if the average American knows 600 people and they each move about every 7 years, that means that the average American knows around 85 people that move in any given year.How many of those moves do you want to be involved in?

The Tampa market has strong population growth and migration into the area that is incongruent to the number of available housing units, leading to rental growth well above the national average.

The Tampa market has strong population growth and migration into the area that is incongruent to the number of available housing units, leading to rental growth well above the national average.