This is with the assumption that they move out after the first lease, which not many do but seems to be the logic they use.  

However, my analysis was based on the assumption that all my current tenants will for at least a year (which they have communicated to me) .  

Your initial assumption was correct.

It's not exactly a "fair" assumption but you have to put yourself in the shoes of an owner who's being solicited on a platform where it takes about 3 minutes to create a fake profile and/or pretend to be someone else.  

My assumption is the listing price will not be near the price the bank paid for it but listed at a price similar to comps in the area (not what I want).So this time I looked at pre-foreclosure.

That would push your repairs up, reducing your ROI.What are you other assumptions?

You've made a lot of false assumptions, and not read my OP.

These are my assumptions so if someone else has any thoughts on why my math is not correct, feel free to correct :)

Your statement is all based on assumption.  

There are a lot of assumptions going in there.