I realize I don't have the actual NOI, but that price sounds super high for the gross income you're stating in your narrative.

Do you know what you are doing based on actual practical hands on experience?

Jefferson County, which technically allows short-term rentals, is fickle with permits and just revoked one of my clients' permits for arbitrary reasons.-- The biggest indicator of turning public sentiment was just last month, in December, when voters in Woodland Park approved a ban on vacation rentals that also appears to NOT grandfather in existing licensed properties. 

Definitely going to consider everything including your last point about 0% interest credit to actually execute the flip and get materials/labor.

If they want to leave, for any reason, they just have to pretend they can't afford the rent.

If you have a lot of family in OK, that can be a great place to start assessing since you have dedicated boots on the ground, as well as a reason to visit.Don't overthink the analyzing of markets when you are still figuring things out.

You won't find any reasonable ROI in the Phoenix area with $150k to $200k down. 

I wonder if you could actually mix the two populations?

Everyone thinks they can paint but there's a big difference between a professional paint job and a non-professional one (the latter usually actually damages the property instead of improving it). 

What would you consider the reason for your success?