I just came upon this post from 2018 and was wondering about the forecast for this area. 

There are too many moving parts, things that will surprise you, problems you just didn't see coming, things hidden beneath the surface, contractor delays, weather, etc, etc, etc. 

But if you are buying and holding more properties (or using the money for more long term items) then having a stable, forecastable interest rate is more important. 

The best way to avoid losing your shirt in a crash is to not over leverage yourself and underwrite best and worst case scenarios to make sure you can weather a hiccup in the market.

A foundational model based on a strong market (jobs/population exceeding averages and projected to continue), conservative deal assumptions / modeling (rents, occupancy) and an experienced team should weather downturns. 

I group cap expense and maintenance estimates because I realize that it is hard enough to forecast one estimate or the other estimate.  

There would be underlining fundamentals to support that too like jobs, growth, schools, weather, supply, demand etc...Good luck! 

None of us can successfully forecast the future but smart money is leaning towards the housing market is inflated and even approaching the "bubble" territory.  

UTLS  etc .. permits many CA locations permits can be 50 to 75k per home.. but I like building these days as a preferable to heavy duty rehab.. last comment is log home in your area unless your way up in the moutains above SD  its too hot and sunny those log homes will get weathered pretty badly and they usually don't fit in the scheme of what is going on in the area like say a desert style home with stucco etc.. that can handle the heat and sun

What you are looking for is whether the IRR forecasted is likely to be achieved.