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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 1 posts and replied 214 times.

Post: AirDNA vs what AirBNB actually shows

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190

Looks like another tool that in the right hands, used the right way might have some kind of value- and will otherwise largely mislead inexperienced, hopeful would be investors. 

Post: How much negative cash flow is too much

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190
Quote from @Bradley Shuhart:
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:

$1


 Lol, it's hard to find anything cashflowing in this market.


 Then what you are saying is there are no deals worth pursuing in that market. Which is true if they all come with negative cashflow. 

Post: How much negative cash flow is too much

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190

Any. The idea that rental property isn't supposed to generate immediate income is outrageous, wasn't acceptable the way it is now in the past, and only exists because people keep trying to hump the over inflated property value bubble. 

Post: Counting every cost

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190

Capex and maintanence for one.

I've heard for decades growing up that expenses are the most common thing screwed up by investors/landlords. Screwed up as in, underestimated.

Post: How best to invest $750k?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @George McQueen:

Through a bit of luck I ended up with $750k and intend to invest some or all of it into real estate.

I'm a remodeling contractor and have worked on hundreds of projects, making OTHER people lots of money. I thought this was my chance to use my experience to make MYSELF some money by flipping houses.

However, I'm suffering from paralysis-by-analysis, because there I don't see much of a spread between run-down 3/2 houses in the $350k range and nice houses selling in the $450k range ... at least in the Austin, TX area. In other words, my hope was to buy a 3/1 or 3/2 for $350k, make $100k of improvements, and sell for $550k ... but that might be wishful thinking.

I realize there are a million details to discuss, but I was wondering if I'm missing something, or am I'm blinded by my bias to want towards "fixer-uppers"?

I have an agent, I have a lender. Just curious if there what other ideas might be out there, especially in this weird lull, where sellers are still hoping for last year's prices, and buyers are on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to drop. 

Personally, I buy Off Market using Subject To, which gives me Instant Equity. I need little money down, no credit check, no bank. You can too.

I take over the loan of the seller, give them their equity. I now own the property. I then sell the property on a Lease Option and get a 10% Option fee (Instant Cash). I get the tax write offs, depreciation, cash flow, principal pay down and I get a big chunk of additional cash when they exercise the Option.

You can do these too if you are interested and this is the best time of year to find off market, Subject To deals for great prices. But, ya gotta know what you’re doing and a lot of people teaching/talking about it are going to learn the hard way what they weren’t told about. So, do it legally and wisely if you're going to do this.


 Where exactly do you source these off market deals?

Post: AirDNA vs what AirBNB actually shows

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190

So, I'm certainly not a power user or expert on AirDNA- but, when I pick a location and it's telling me what the daily rate is, and I go to AirBnB and look up what is really being listed in the area, AirDNA is just way off. AirDNA is projecting way to high of daily rates, from what I'm seeing.

I'll give you an example. San Pedro CA. AirDNA would have you has $238 as the daily rate. AirBnB tells a different story. As in, $100 a night less different. 

If what is't doing is simply averaging out all the listings, thats about as usefull as telling me the average income of people at a wedding that included Waren Buffet as a guest. 

So my question- how useful is the rest of the data it's supposedly gathering? 

Asking because I'm hearing more an more people relying on AirDNA data for purchasing. And they don't seem to be asking these questions. 

Post: Getting Started Struggles

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190
Quote from @Michael Smythe:

@Account Closed most of the cities that touch Detroit, we call them the Ring Cities, are Class B.

Some have recently gentrified from Class C and still have some residual areas.

Class B is where most investors want to be, as Class A doesn't typically cashflow for 3-5 years.

DM me if you want to chat more:)


 I think we might have different definitions of class B. Parts of Royal Oak are class B to me. Parts of Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills class A.

Redford... no way in hell. No offense to anyone. 

Post: Getting Started Struggles

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190
Quote from @Michael Smythe:
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Benjamin Sulka:
Quote from @Account Closed:

Money or not, honestly, where do you think you are seeing deals laying around these days? 


 What market are you in? 


 Looking in the suburbs of metro Detroit (excluding lousy areas, which is a lot of them) and Los Angeles- which is a fantasy land at this point. 


 Which suburban cities are you looking in? Which ones are "lousy" areas?

 If I say in public which areas are lousy, I'm going to offend the crap out of a lot of people. Let just say, the suburbs surrounding metro detroit have a few pockets where you'd want to live, raise kids, ect. A lot of the rest, you feel like you need to take a bath just from driving through. 

Post: What's the best time of the year to buy?

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Account Closed:

The best time of year to buy is after a major market correction. Otherwise, don't fool yourself.


 100% agree but man...how long do we have to wait? Haha. Money is there to be made any time....the easier time is after a correction of course but imagine if you were waiting for a correction from say 2015. That's a lot of opportunities missed 8 years later till today. We still haven't had a real recession even when the economy dropped a bit during 2020. 

 I'm all ears if someone can show me at least 6% cash flow, starting in the first year, in a B class or better property, in a quality area.

I've seen people around me do better than 6% in the first year, and I've seen people buy quality properties and quality areas- I just haven't seen a single person do both things at the same time in the last 5 years. 

edit: (I've seen someone lieing, until I got into her numbers and saw the truth myself :) )

Post: [Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

Account ClosedPosted
  • Posts 217
  • Votes 190

Total Monthly Cashflow using 50% Rule: -$206    That number looks about right.

The rest of it, the upside speculation projecting into the future, is only that. Speculation. 

What you know for real is that you will be out of pocket every month when you average out all the expenses over time. For who knows how long until you can bump up the rents.