All Forum Posts by: Cailyn Aune

You can call a few property managers in the area and ask them how much it would rent for. They are super familiar with the neighborhoods and what amenities add more to the asking price, etc.

Hey Chris... Is there a link to this property? Thanks,..!

Welcome Brookley! Whereabouts in Puyallup are you? I'm in Tacoma but my husbands family is in South hill off of Shaw. Love Puyallup! Looks like you have some legwork ahead of you.... ! Glad that isn't scaring you off. There is a lot you can look up regarding credit repair. I would also suggest reading up in the personal finance forums. You can do this! There is always someone else out there with a story worse than our own, who has been successful. So no excuses...! You can do this! Good Luck!

Welcome to your new favorite place....! I grew up in South Everett....! Just north of Silverlake in Eastview estates. Loved it. Outskirts of Seattle I think are wonderful.... Still hard to find properties, but not impossible. The benefit of the Seattle market close by, but not quite the ticket price. GOOD LUCK! You will do well with your background...!

@Ryland Taniguchi - you clearly have done your homework. :o) My dad has talked to me about this stuff for years. So yes, in essence... Foldvary's article could be worthless when you factor in everything about our current situation, and how much everything is manipulated when it benefits those in charge. I appreciate the perspective. I think those who are investing away without any thought to anything changing, (right @Jason V.?), are going to be in trouble. 

Ok, so for me and anyone else on here who is newer..... 

What would you do if you were just getting started out right now??? How should someone like myself is just getting started to my best to prepare, and yet take action? We were originally thinking all buy and hold, but the more reading I've done, I've been wondering if we shouldn't flip to build more capital/cash so that I too can be like a kid in a candy store like Jason V. when the foreclosures come around again... :o) 

@Gino Barbaro-  thanks again for bringing this all up. I really, really appreciate perspectives from experienced investors, and this topic is constantly in my mind. I want to respect it, but not let it hold me back. 

@Jay Hinrichs ... Ha ha...! True! :o) He predicted it for other reasons.... I'm no expert... but I'm thinking based on what the article is about, that enough other factors play into the cycles apart from just the 125% mortgages... God forbid we ever see those again. Ugh. I'm inclined to think it made the downturn a crash instead of just a downturn..... 

??? :o) Keep poking holes....  the article is pretty provoking for various reasons.

Thanks @Jay Hinrichs - I never tire of your perspective. All of the things you're saying were contributing factors to the downturn, were definitely not just isolated to Cali, so I would imagine affected everywhere else too.... but in this article, it's citing 18 year cycles from peak to peak in the real estate market.... 

Even if you disagree with that, that to you it's been 10 years or so... I would love your thoughts on the 4 phases of the cycle he talks about in the article.... they seem to totally make sense on how a peak and downturn take place, and the signs for how to see one coming. They have a lot to do with supply and demand, new construction, vacancy... etc. But a lot of what you're talking about were more like global causes, not just supply/demand...

It is pretty crazy though.... check out what one of the cited authors said in 1997.

"The next major bust, 18 years after the 1990 downturn, will be around 2008, if there is no major interruption as a global war." -Fred E. Foldvary. (1997) .....His prediction was spot on.

NOW... one thing that is coming to mind....obviously all the markets... stock, commodities, real estate oil/gas are interconnected for sure.... but here, he is making a distinction specifically to Real Estate cycle peaks vs. Construction cycle peaks  vs. Business cycles. The graph in the article is really interesting.

I would love for people to poke holes in this though.....! It's hard with my limited experience in real estate, to do that.

I love that this topic came up, thank you @Gino Barbaro

As I've been looking around my local market lately (Tacoma, south of Seattle), I have been asking myself the same questions... HOW long is this sustainable? When we have homes going for over 250k in C areas.... I just keep seeing in my memory, thousands of foreclosed homes, and for sale signs all over town, and empty strip malls flashing through my mind from 2009. Median home prices in Seattle just went over 500k... higher than during the 2006 peak. Where I live we are very close to the 2006 prices.

I've only just gotten started in real estate investing.... But I've really felt like I need to know (to the best of my ability) two things before I continue to make moves confidently....

1) How can I know the market at large, and the history of cycles it's taken, to help prepare myself and

2) How can I know how my immediate market responds to the overall big picture market....

I started doing research...

I found this article... It was FASCINATING. Well, to me anyway.

The article is about the history of real estate market cycles since 1800.... and the pattern it takes. It is eerily consistent. He also lists THREE signs, in a specific order, that will tell investors who are watching- that the peak is coming, and then inevitably, the downturn. 

@Ben Leybovich, @Jay Hinrichs, @David Faulkner, @Alex Franks, and Gino.... and ANY OTHERS who have been in real estate for a long time.... 

What do you think of this article??? It was very intriguing to me... especially if you start reading the source articles he is citing.  History repeats itself. This we know. What can we learn from this for how to prepare? I so badly do not want to invest in fear. Fear of doing, or fear of not doing. I don't want to live like that. But I want to be PREPARED. I would love to know your thoughts, and others too! Again, fascinating.

http://www.dce.harvard.edu/professional/blog/how-u...

Mark- if people are on here and taking the time to answer your questions... You're not wasting anyone's time. :) That's their choice if they want to take the time to do that to respond or not. Don't apologize. :) The more you learn, read, ask for help- the closer you will get to being able to identify good numbers that meet your criteria. Keep going.... You can do it!

Ha! What a story! Way to not pass up an opportunity.... !!!!