Was I Wrong?

A few months ago, I started sending out a newsletter to my buyer's list.  I called it "REI:FYI" and I have tried to use it to inform and encourage my buyers to get into the market.  I am fully aware of the situation with the economy but, as I see it, we truly have an historic opportunity the likes of which we will not see again in our lifetimes.  

 

"No one can guarantee that the market won’t go down some more in the near future, nor can they guarantee prices will go up.  The professional investor can only look at trends and make an educated guess as to when the market will go up and when it will go down.  The savvy investor does not waste time market timing; waiting for just the right moment to sell or buy.  Market timing is an invitation to inaction.  The savvy investor looks at the majority of the evidence and then makes a firm decision and goes with the emerging patterns.

 

We are seeing more and more signs that the housing sector is on the rebound.  It is an emerging trend that is being acknowledged by multiple sources.  Of course, these signs guarantee nothing.  However, fortunes are not made on guarantees.  Investing is a matter of risk management.  The greater the risk, the greater the reward.  Is it possible that there will be another wave of foreclosures?  Definitely.  It is also possible that the commercial real estate industry may tank as well?  Could be.  But indications in the residential housing market are now, for the most part, positive and this trend is being seen by multiple sources such as the Chinese, the WSJ, the Case-Shiller Index and several other sources.  Conversely, is it also possible that the market will continue it’s slow growth?  Yes.  And if it does and you’re still waiting for the turnaround, haven’t you lost money?  Our task as investors, is to decide if we are willing to take that calculated risk.

 

The purpose of REI:FYI is not to give you only a “Pollyanna” point of view but to point out that there is in fact good news out there; news that we as informed investors need to be aware of.  There is always a reason not to invest.  It’s really easy to focus on the bad news.  The Great Depression started with the Market Crash of 1929.  But the Depression itself didn’t hit bottom until 1933.  And yet, between 1929 and 1933, investors started to buy up undervalued properties and when things began to turn around in 1934 and 1935, they made millions.  Did they have any guarantees in 1933 that it wasn’t going to get worse?  No.  We are now at a similar point in history.

 

The point is, if investors of 1933 had waited until they were “sure” that the Depression was over, they wouldn’t have made nearly as much money as they did.  They looked at the economy, saw some positive signs and made the decision to invest."

 

Anyway, I am still fairly new in real estate investing.  So, I'm asking the experienced investors here at Bigger Pockets, am I off base here?