Best markets to buy multifamily in 2016: A round-table discussion

Best markets to buy multifamily in 2016: A round-table discussion

Brian BurkePro Member
Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes

At the beginning of each year I take the time to research and reflect on various markets throughout the country so as to provide a road map to my acquisition search for the year.  As an active buyer of apartment complexes of 100+ units, market selection is very important to a successful outcome.

For the last seven years I’ve focused heavily on the major Texas markets, and that approach has been good to me, but 2016 is the year that I see a stronger potential to branch out to other markets as well.

To that end, I’ve researched population & job growth, wage growth, net migration, costs of doing business, median home prices, housing affordability & starts, rent/cost of ownership ratio, rent as a percentage of household income, vacancy, rent growth, and other economic and demographic indicators.  This research has led me to develop this list of MSAs that I believe may be good markets in which to invest, particularly in multifamily.  In alphabetical order:

  • Atlanta
  • Austin
  • Cape Coral / Fort Myers / Naples
  • Charlotte
  • Dallas
  • Denver
  • Nashville
  • Orlando
  • Portland
  • Raleigh
  • San Antonio
  • Seattle
  • Tacoma

There are two cities that moved up in the Milken Institute’s best performing cities index but didn’t rate all that high in ULI’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate report.  So I’m conflicted.  Not sure if I should consider them or not. Those are:

  • Boise
  • Charleston

Then, there are these three cities that seem to have strong favorable indicators but have declined in some rankings over last year.  Those are:

  • Columbus
  • Indianapolis
  • Minneapolis

And finally, there are several markets that that still don’t have the most favorable numbers, but are amongst the biggest gainers in the Milken Institute’s best performing cities index, which could spell opportunity to get in early (well, relatively speaking anyways…early was actually more like 2010).  They are:

  • Eugene
  • Fresno
  • Las Vegas
  • Modesto
  • Reno
  • Salem
  • Salinas
  • Spokane
  • Stockton

Noticeably absent are what some are calling the best markets in the country, and the data is there to support such a claim.  San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles.  I just see these markets as having become highly inflated and further gains are less certain in the near term.

Now for the round-table discussion.  Locals, and active investors in the named markets, what are your “boots on the ground” opinions?

And every city has a story, such as “the north side is doing great but the south side, not so much” or “XYZ is about to build a big plant on the northeast side”.  What’s the story of your market?

And for others, if I didn’t name your favorite market, what is it, and why?

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Rental Property Investor · NY · Member since 2015 · 49 posts · 20 votes
9y

Who else is ready for Brian to give us a 2017 update?

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 60 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    I am investing in Richmond, Ca.  Getting good rent increases and improving tenant profiles for sfr. Lots of trickle down from insane SF and Oakland/Berkeley markets.  As well as Richmond cleaning up their act in last several years.  I like the middle of the road neighborhoods with decent proximity to BART.

    Side note..Friend of mine has been doing well investing in Provo Utah.  Not sure if that market is large enough to be on your radar.

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @John Barnette:

     Side note..Friend of mine has been doing well investing in Provo Utah.  Not sure if that market is large enough to be on your radar.

    Provo is actually ranked #3 in the US on the Milken Institute's best performing cities index, unchanged from last year.  From the indicators I studied, it looks like a great market.  For a buyer of 100+ unit apartment complexes, it seems more like a secondary one-off market,  too small to develop infrastructure and own multiple properties.

    And...I agree with you that Richmond CA is a likely benefactor of the ripple effect from SF and Oakland, as are Solano County and Sacramento.  @J. Martin has had a lot of success there too.  The high per-unit cost is somewhat of a barrier to my model and would force me into smaller unit counts, which becomes more labor intensive.  I do have some rental houses in and near there that I picked up at the bottom of the market, however.  I'll sell those this year or next.  But they've done very well.

  • Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 60 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    on point. Yes friend doing smaller 10-20 unit buildings.

    Keep me in the loop with your Richmond places. I could be interested. 

  • Investor · Cape Coral, FL · Member since 2013 · 42 posts · 17 votes
    10y

    Cape Cora, FL has been experiencing a steady rejuvenation.  Although currently it seems to me that the rents are too inflated, creeping closely to the affordable home mortgage payment value.  The cap rates are also a bit low on the open market.

  • Mountain View, CA · Member since 2015 · 30 posts · 8 votes
    10y
    I don't have a lot to add but am very interested in Modesto, Reno, and generally Bay Area secondary markets + Nevada due to familiarity. I sometimes wonder about long term stability but I guess it's more just matter of checking the numbers. My uncle bought a side SFR in Reno as both his kids went to UNR and got in state tuition plus rented out the extra 2-3 rooms. It was great considering the situation but he seems to think rent rates aren't so great to warrant buying more. He lives in Manteca and is an agent. He always talks highly about Modesto.
  • Rental Property Investor · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Nice summary @Brian Burke thank you for doing the heavy lifting for us.

    @J. Martin check this out. How does it compare to your economical research?

  • Reno, NV · Member since 2015 · 10 posts · 4 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @David Affonso:

    I don't have a lot to add but am very interested in Modesto, Reno, and generally Bay Area secondary markets + Nevada due to familiarity. I sometimes wonder about long term stability but I guess it's more just matter of checking the numbers.

    My uncle bought a side SFR in Reno as both his kids went to UNR and got in state tuition plus rented out the extra 2-3 rooms. It was great considering the situation but he seems to think rent rates aren't so great to warrant buying more. He lives in Manteca and is an agent. He always talks highly about Modesto.

    Reno could be a great market currently for the speculative investing. There are a lot of companies moving to Reno in a very short time. The only down side is that currently, all properties that are in a quality and rentable area with good school zones only offer 5-10% CAP rates. Most multifamily's I have seen are in a fairly similar boat. This makes the deals that much harder to find, but does offer the upside of the economic growth that is coming.

  • David GreeneBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco Bay Area, CA · Member since 2012 · 225 posts · 266 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @David Affonso:

    I don't have a lot to add but am very interested in Modesto, Reno, and generally Bay Area secondary markets + Nevada due to familiarity. I sometimes wonder about long term stability but I guess it's more just matter of checking the numbers.

    My uncle bought a side SFR in Reno as both his kids went to UNR and got in state tuition plus rented out the extra 2-3 rooms. It was great considering the situation but he seems to think rent rates aren't so great to warrant buying more. He lives in Manteca and is an agent. He always talks highly about Modesto.

  • David GreeneBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco Bay Area, CA · Member since 2012 · 225 posts · 266 votes
    10y

    I've been investing in a group that has been moving into the southeast. Florida and Georgia were the last two areas. We also like North Carolina due to long term job growth. Demand has been increasing so fast the properties are all way ahead of the pro forma numbers we estimated upon acquisition.

    Anybody had any issues in the southeast?

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @David Greene:

    Demand has been increasing so fast the properties are all way ahead of the pro forma numbers we estimated upon acquisition.

    This is exactly why it's so important to invest in growth markets.  It's one thing to buy and fix up a property to improve performance and increase the value, but to do it in a growth market gives you a tailwind.  Most of my acquisitions outperform my projections, but I only buy in growth markets and tend to conservatively forecast how much growth that market will experience.  Identifying the growth markets is the tricky part, so this is a great discussion so far!

  • David GreeneBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco Bay Area, CA · Member since 2012 · 225 posts · 266 votes
    10y

    we actually target the areas where we believe the jobs are moving, then cross reference that with where there is a lack of housing that professionals would want to live (such as a lack of b level properties so they are all forced to c level properties). We then target those areas looking for deals (networking with brokers, direct mailing, property managers, etc). It's a little backwards from the typical "find the deal then evaluate the area" model, but I think it saves a lot it time in the long wrong and allows the investors to get paid back at a higher return than they expected. 

  • Realtor · Metro ATL, GA · Member since 2015 · 64 posts · 11 votes
    10y

    HI @Brian Burke I am an agent and investor in the Atlanta area, I would love t chat and see if we could work together.

  • Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 65 votes
    10y

    I would add Charleston to your consider list .. Boeing is moving a good amount of work to the area and will be building planes there for a long time.  It may even be too late to beat the wave but its should be on your list.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2015 · 35 posts · 12 votes
    10y

    Chicago is missing from the list.  Realtytrac had a survey recently that showed 5 Chicago zip code with the highest returns for property flips - multiunits included.  Chicago should be on this list.

  • Rental Property Investor · Fond Du Lac, WI · Member since 2015 · 261 posts · 78 votes
    10y

    Fond Du Lac, Wisconsin. Raise $1M and come buy the entire city! 

  • New to Real Estate · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2015 · 177 posts · 69 votes
    10y

    @Brian Burke 

    Thank you for putting this great round table. I am new to RE investing this will help me, I live in Charlotte, NC great market and I was wondering if you could elaborate a little more about the Charlotte market and the state of North Carolina when it comes to small Multifamily? Thank you in advance!

    Much success to you!

  • Investor · Princeton, TX · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    The continuing weather related shortage of buildable lots will keep the apartment rental market strong in Collin County at least for the next year.  Therefore most of the DFW Metropolitan area will be strong.

  • Investor · New York City, NY · Member since 2015 · 808 posts · 417 votes
    10y

    @Brian Burke

    Not that I am a Houston expert but it may be an interesting area to keep your focus on if it gets hit with oil fears or people selling in advance of an oil-induced decline. Its a strong market and while energy is def risk it is more diverse than people give it credit for and many of these companies I think will still have things to do including energy trading, acquiring assets on the cheap, etc.  Would be surprised if in 10 years prices for RE in Houston are not higher, prob not CA higher but higher none the less. 

    Would be curious what markets you decide are the ones you think are interesting and why.  Some of these markets like Seattle, Austin, Dallas, Nashville, etc. have been known to be good markets and have little in the way of inventory most people can play while others like  Boise, Charleston and Columbus are less well-known and probably easier to play. Speaking of SC I am surprised Charrlotte did not make the list. 

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    Problem for me buying in a "growth market", aside from the obvious of correctly identifying them with good timing,is that it is such a royal PITA to build up the infrastructure of reliable boots on the ground (agents, contractors, PMs, etc.). If I'm going through the blood, sweat, and tears to build this team, it makes more sense to me to do it in a solid but relatively steady market with decent returns that will be"investable" for a long time as opposed to chasing a growth market where if correctly identified I have a short window to make huge returns before the growth pushes it outside of my investment parameters and I have to start all over to move to the next up and coming market. Then again, I don't have the scale, network, or experience Brian has, so he likely makes it look easy to do what us mere mortals struggle with :). I'm all ears on any counterpoints or tips on how to do this transition smoothly & continuously.

  • Buy and Hold Investor · Nashville, TN · Member since 2013 · 264 posts · 102 votes
    10y

    Areas of Nashville appear to have peaked as far as single family prices go, but even if we see a mini-bubble it won't change that it's still a pretty cheap city to live in. It also won't change the rental pool, which is growing basically every day as people move here for various reasons.

    We've also seen some tech companies moving in, so we'll see the effects of that as well.

  • Nashville, TN · Member since 2016 · 1 post · 1 vote
    10y
    Originally posted by @David Faulkner:

    Problem for me buying in a "growth market", aside from the obvious of correctly identifying them with good timing,is that it is such a royal PITA to build up the infrastructure of reliable boots on the ground (agents, contractors, PMs, etc.). If I'm going through the blood, sweat, and tears to build this team, it makes more sense to me to do it in a solid but relatively steady market with decent returns that will be"investable" for a long time as opposed to chasing a growth market where if correctly identified I have a short window to make huge returns before the growth pushes it outside of my investment parameters and I have to start all over to move to the next up and coming market. Then again, I don't have the scale, network, or experience Brian has, so he likely makes it look easy to do what us mere mortals struggle with :). I'm all ears on any counterpoints or tips on how to do this transition smoothly & continuously.

    David, I think the best way to accomplish this is going in JV with someone on the ground that has those connections and that you really trust. I feel like that's the only way to move quickly enough before the growth pushes you out, as you said. Of course, you still have the problem of finding that trustworthy partner on the ground, but finding one person with a team is easier than putting together your own team.

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    10y

    @Edwin Williams I kind of thought so too...thanks for the backup, I think I'll move it up the list.

    @Stone Timber I can't figure out Chicago.  On the surface I'd think it would be a really strong market.  But it ranked 122 on the best performing cities list, down 25 places from last year, and it had a negative 2015-2016 net migration.  That said, home prices haven't reached all the way back to peak levels so it has upside.  Still can't add this to my list but there's a chance I could be missing out.  Maybe those stats will keep some people away (like me) so that there are good deals for those who see what I don't see.

    @Frank Eimiller, OK, let's say I do that...then what?  LOL

    @Account Closed you are 100% correct.  It is a lot of brain damage to create the proper infrastructure in a new market.  I first arrived in the Texas market eight years ago.  It was a "growth market" then, and it still is now.  Growth markets tend to be so for quite some time, it isn't typically that transitory because they are experiencing growth for a reason, and if it is temporary, it isn't a market that I'd be nearly as interested in.  It took me a year to build a team in Texas.  I suspect I could do it faster in my next markets but still not without a lot of legwork.  I suspect that I might be partnering with experienced investors local to the area.  The strongest team is a local team.  Such is the case in Texas, I have a local partner there and it would be a lot more difficult without him.

  • Jonna WeberPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 736 votes
    10y

    @Brian Burke - Boise is on a definite growth path.   The Treasure Valley (which includes cities surrounding Boise) is projected to increase by 200,000 in the next 5 years, and good companies are taking notice and moving here.  That said - inventory is low for buying investors right now and I imagine that the returns are probably modest by your standards.  (somewhat of a sellers market).  I believe there are some good development opportunities. If you ever want to discuss further off the forum, I'm always available to chat about my favorite town.  Good forum thread!  

  • Troy GandeeBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 795 posts · 454 votes
    10y

    @Brian Burke Charleston here. Charleston's a strong market, but it can be hard to invest around here. There is very little casual investing anymore. We're considered a noteworthy city mainly because of the cultural and historical relevancy of the area. Charleston is quite small as far as "cities" go. It goes from urban to rural really fast here. And it's very competitive because of the size. I see bad deals get scooped up in days all the time. That's only because good deals are pretty scarce unless you have the infrastructure to fill the pipes. I would think Charlotte would be a much stronger market for multifamilies because of the size of the metro area and the sprawl. We don't even have much of a turnkey service like most of those other places mentioned. 

  • Brie SchmidtBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2013 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by : @Brian Burke

    I can't figure out Chicago.  On the surface I'd think it would be a really strong market.  But it ranked 122 on the best performing cities list, down 25 places from last year, and it had a negative 2015-2016 net migration.  That said, home prices haven't reached all the way back to peak levels so it has upside.  Still can't add this to my list but there's a chance I could be missing out.  Maybe those stats will keep some people away (like me) so that there are good deals for those who see what I don't see.

    Chicago is such a massive market, at 234 sq miles for just the city and 10,857 sq miles for the metro area.  That is much different than the city of San Francisco at 47 sq miles or the LA metro area at 4,850 sq miles.  

    Why I think this is important is that all the reports or data are encompassing of the entire area.  We have submarkets where the average single family sold for $1 million and others where the average single family home sold for $17,000.  These two areas (Roscoe Village and Englewood) are less than 15 miles apart, but are vastly different.  

    I think one needs to look at the submarket data to determine it's potential.  
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