Is the need for affordable housing creating new markets?

[Cory J Thornton]

I have been thinking through housing, affordability, and the effect on what until the last few years have been dead markets. Any home with a decent commute to a decent market is not affordable. 

Over the last few years, and even now, I am seeing investors put their capital to work in areas that locals have previously ignored. 

It begs the question, in order to afford a rent, afford an investment property, or a primary home, will price start pushing people to forget the first three rules of Real Estate (location, location, location)? 

As a local example, a recent study showing the migration patterns of folks leaving Raleigh, the #6 city most likely to pick up those residents was Rocky Mount NC. Five years ago, this was not the case and even three years ago people were still highly suspect of that area (myself included). Now I'm starting to see people push much further out to 3-4 layers away from primary job markets completely sacrificing location for cost of ownership or cost of living. 

What do y'all think?

Is this something anyone else is noticing and if it is a trend, is there anything that will make it a short lived thing or is it going to continue longer term?

[Cory J Thornton]

Quote from @James Hamling:

@Cory J Thornton at risk of being wrong, I'd say we are at the middle of the beginning of a paradigm shift. 

For generations, hell millennia, things operated on a simple system that there is some geographic feature, somewhere, that brings many together in 1 spot, that brings more, a city builds, grows, and get's to a size that a kind of "gravity" is made putting people and industry in a geographic "orbit" of that market center. 

But now.... 

COVID lockdown "crashed the system" so to say. And at exact same time forced the use of an alternative one, remote working. Dislocated staffing. And, very key, it forced it's use for an enduring time. So people and employers not only had to use it, they had to integrate it's use, get good at it, accept it into the fold. 

Than at same time we get massive social upheaval, which given population density was focused in those more dense populous areas. Social unrest, riots, lawlessness. Add to this all the social unrest and upheaval in school systems which again most prevalent in populous dense areas.... 

It's a "perfect storm" of factors all hitting together. 

Where a new paradigm seems to be coming to the front that "good old family living" is to be found in the satellite areas, a step beyond the traditional suburbs. That the "work life balance" is almost directly translating as a remote whatever working situation. 

Gov agencies keep integrating more and more with this. And the private sector fight against remote, that was a fart in the breeze for most part. People WANT remote working lifestyles. 

And this change of primary income requirements becoming transient, opens up a whole different world of how people locate themselves. 

I think we are very early in it. I think we only saw the first wave from this, and are now into consolidation and normalization, from which sustained growth will next come, if not already is here in early days of it. 

Where high speed internet exists, is now a viable living potential, and that's a LOT of places. 

before, there was a sizable cost to where one geographically located. We didn't just change that, we flipped it on it's head because if you can do a remote CA tech job, man-alive your going to be rewarded if live in a say a rural SD town. Like Living in South Africa but earning in dollars, currency conversion rich. 

This is very early to say but yes, I think one of the next "gold rush's" for investors is in the development/re-development of these communities. I don't know what to call them other than maybe a "Z-market" because it's really driving in power by the younger generations who are saying f-this to living by conventional "old" rules of things. 

MSA's still hold a gravity, but it's not what it once was, there is this force that now exists immune to such geographic gravity, if not working in reverse polarity to it.  

I don't see it changing back. I think we at the beginning. Remember when internet first came out (I just dated myself didn't I, lol). There was this big rush, then got real quiet. It's like the first "cool" rush of things, but then it took time for integration. And it was years, YEARS before it started getting to be something other then a novelty. And it's like I woke up one day and out of nowhere the internet was a requirement.... I see remote work going exact same way. And with it, housing location choice. 

Good schools, good internet, good food, good prices. I think that's the magic 4 factors. I know good food seems a bit weird, I think so, but it's what I see repeatedly in these "z-markets" forming. Apparently food is a really big deal to younger generations, I'm not sure they know stoves are for cooking not gadget storage, lol.  

@James Hamling I think you are correct. This is a great post reply! The hwy that allows access to rural communities will be improved rural internet and cell reception. I am seeing some restaurant operators open up locations in rural markets, and those eateries are doing well. 

Thank you for the thoughtfully constructed insights!

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Cory J Thornton:

Quote from @James Hamling:

@Cory J Thornton at risk of being wrong, I'd say we are at the middle of the beginning of a paradigm shift. 

For generations, hell millennia, things operated on a simple system that there is some geographic feature, somewhere, that brings many together in 1 spot, that brings more, a city builds, grows, and get's to a size that a kind of "gravity" is made putting people and industry in a geographic "orbit" of that market center. 

But now.... 

COVID lockdown "crashed the system" so to say. And at exact same time forced the use of an alternative one, remote working. Dislocated staffing. And, very key, it forced it's use for an enduring time. So people and employers not only had to use it, they had to integrate it's use, get good at it, accept it into the fold. 

Than at same time we get massive social upheaval, which given population density was focused in those more dense populous areas. Social unrest, riots, lawlessness. Add to this all the social unrest and upheaval in school systems which again most prevalent in populous dense areas.... 

It's a "perfect storm" of factors all hitting together. 

Where a new paradigm seems to be coming to the front that "good old family living" is to be found in the satellite areas, a step beyond the traditional suburbs. That the "work life balance" is almost directly translating as a remote whatever working situation. 

Gov agencies keep integrating more and more with this. And the private sector fight against remote, that was a fart in the breeze for most part. People WANT remote working lifestyles. 

And this change of primary income requirements becoming transient, opens up a whole different world of how people locate themselves. 

I think we are very early in it. I think we only saw the first wave from this, and are now into consolidation and normalization, from which sustained growth will next come, if not already is here in early days of it. 

Where high speed internet exists, is now a viable living potential, and that's a LOT of places. 

before, there was a sizable cost to where one geographically located. We didn't just change that, we flipped it on it's head because if you can do a remote CA tech job, man-alive your going to be rewarded if live in a say a rural SD town. Like Living in South Africa but earning in dollars, currency conversion rich. 

This is very early to say but yes, I think one of the next "gold rush's" for investors is in the development/re-development of these communities. I don't know what to call them other than maybe a "Z-market" because it's really driving in power by the younger generations who are saying f-this to living by conventional "old" rules of things. 

MSA's still hold a gravity, but it's not what it once was, there is this force that now exists immune to such geographic gravity, if not working in reverse polarity to it.  

I don't see it changing back. I think we at the beginning. Remember when internet first came out (I just dated myself didn't I, lol). There was this big rush, then got real quiet. It's like the first "cool" rush of things, but then it took time for integration. And it was years, YEARS before it started getting to be something other then a novelty. And it's like I woke up one day and out of nowhere the internet was a requirement.... I see remote work going exact same way. And with it, housing location choice. 

Good schools, good internet, good food, good prices. I think that's the magic 4 factors. I know good food seems a bit weird, I think so, but it's what I see repeatedly in these "z-markets" forming. Apparently food is a really big deal to younger generations, I'm not sure they know stoves are for cooking not gadget storage, lol.  

@James Hamling I think you are correct. This is a great post reply! The hwy that allows access to rural communities will be improved rural internet and cell reception. I am seeing some restaurant operators open up locations in rural markets, and those eateries are doing well. 

Thank you for the thoughtfully constructed insights!

Discussed heavily here:
https://www.naiop.org/research-and-publications/magazine/202...  

Also looks like some cities are having different trajectory post-covid for urban vs suburban, in term of property value/demands:

[Carlos Ptriawan]

some more valuable data :

several suburbs and smaller cities have seen significant population growth in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those located in the South and West regions of the United States. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. Georgetown, Texas - This suburb of Austin was the fastest-growing large city (50,000+ population) in the U.S. for two consecutive years, with a growth rate of 14.4% from July 2021 to July 2022, reaching a population of 86,507. Georgetown's population has increased by over 19,000 since the 2020 census.
2. Leander, Texas - Another suburb of Austin, Leander had a growth rate of 10.9% from 2021-2022 and was among the top 5 fastest-growing large cities. Its population increased from 60,848 in 2020 to 74,375 in 2022.
3. Queen Creek, Arizona and other Phoenix exurbs - The Phoenix metro area surpassed 5 million residents in 2022, with much of the growth concentrated in far-flung exurban communities. Queen Creek and other suburbs like Buckeye and Maricopa were among the fastest-growing large cities with growth rates over 6%.
4. New Braunfels, Texas - Located near San Antonio, New Braunfels had a growth rate of 5.7% from 2021-2022 and a total population of 104,707.
5. Montgomery County, Texas - This suburban county north of Houston grew by 4.3% from 2021 to 2022, part of a 47.7% population increase since 2010

[Cory J Thornton]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

some more valuable data :

several suburbs and smaller cities have seen significant population growth in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those located in the South and West regions of the United States. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. Georgetown, Texas - This suburb of Austin was the fastest-growing large city (50,000+ population) in the U.S. for two consecutive years, with a growth rate of 14.4% from July 2021 to July 2022, reaching a population of 86,507. Georgetown's population has increased by over 19,000 since the 2020 census.
2. Leander, Texas - Another suburb of Austin, Leander had a growth rate of 10.9% from 2021-2022 and was among the top 5 fastest-growing large cities. Its population increased from 60,848 in 2020 to 74,375 in 2022.
3. Queen Creek, Arizona and other Phoenix exurbs - The Phoenix metro area surpassed 5 million residents in 2022, with much of the growth concentrated in far-flung exurban communities. Queen Creek and other suburbs like Buckeye and Maricopa were among the fastest-growing large cities with growth rates over 6%.
4. New Braunfels, Texas - Located near San Antonio, New Braunfels had a growth rate of 5.7% from 2021-2022 and a total population of 104,707.
5. Montgomery County, Texas - This suburban county north of Houston grew by 4.3% from 2021 to 2022, part of a 47.7% population increase since 2010

 @Carlos Ptriawan - The data story you provide is fantastic. My initial question has really become a very informative discussion ... thank you for the collaboration on this thought experiment! Great insights! 

[Peter W.]

In my city houses sell for 150-300k in the pretty good suburbs, but new builds need to be about a half a million in order to pay construction costs, lending costs, make a profit, realtor fees etc. I see a very fixed supply of affordable housing for new family formation and those at median income levels.  Folks are either going to have to look further out to find affordable housing or look into the city which is less desirable due to the post 2020 changes in crime patterns.  The key will be to figure out which suburbs and exurbs are likely to gain from the excess demand.

[Marcus Auerbach]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Good schools, good internet, good food, good prices. I think that's the magic 4 factors. I know good food seems a bit weird, I think so, but it's what I see repeatedly in these "z-markets" forming. Apparently food is a really big deal to younger generations, I'm not sure they know stoves are for cooking not gadget storage, lol. 

Not weird at all, good food is a key element to a good life. Ask any Italian. As a born and raised European, I am painfully aware of the scarcity of good quality food in the US. And before you object: yes you can buy it, but it is VERY expensive, both in restaurants and grocery stores. 

Whole Foods would be an about average quality grocery store and they would compete for price. A quart of regular milk is about 1 Euro, grass-fed organic milk is 1.10 - the difference is very small. (1 Euro = roughly 1.1 USD) Here in Milwaukee I pay about about $7 for for a 2 quart container grass-fed. And when I travel to the West coast I find out that is actually cheap!! 

We are caught in that vicious cycle of having to make more money in order to live better, and the utter lack of work-life balance is killing the very quality of life we are trying to achieve by working harder for it.

Europe is a stark contrast, but you see a difference within the US. And I think this is where the Midwest starts to stand out from red-haired step child of past decades to looking pretty good now. The pace of life is a bit more moderate, cost of living definitely is lower and we all know about real estate prices. 

I would also add good health care to that list. Not as obvious, but all the more important when you need it.

I also think that the whole "move south" movement will eventually come around and people will find out that living in TX or FL has also it's downsides. Just look at the news every day, insurance cost is definitely going to continue to go up there.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Good schools, good internet, good food, good prices. I think that's the magic 4 factors. I know good food seems a bit weird, I think so, but it's what I see repeatedly in these "z-markets" forming. Apparently food is a really big deal to younger generations, I'm not sure they know stoves are for cooking not gadget storage, lol. 

Not weird at all, good food is a key element to a good life. Ask any Italian. As a born and raised European, I am painfully aware of the scarcity of good quality food in the US. And before you object: yes you can buy it, but it is VERY expensive, both in restaurants and grocery stores. 

Whole Foods would be an about average quality grocery store and they would compete for price. A quart of regular milk is about 1 Euro, grass-fed organic milk is 1.10 - the difference is very small. (1 Euro = roughly 1.1 USD) Here in Milwaukee I pay about about $7 for for a 2 quart container grass-fed. And when I travel to the West coast I find out that is actually cheap!! 

We are caught in that vicious cycle of having to make more money in order to live better, and the utter lack of work-life balance is killing the very quality of life we are trying to achieve by working harder for it.

Europe is a stark contrast, but you see a difference within the US. And I think this is where the Midwest starts to stand out from red-haired step child of past decades to looking pretty good now. The pace of life is a bit more moderate, cost of living definitely is lower and we all know about real estate prices. 

I would also add good health care to that list. Not as obvious, but all the more important when you need it.

I also think that the whole "move south" movement will eventually come around and people will find out that living in TX or FL has also it's downsides. Just look at the news every day, insurance cost is definitely going to continue to go up there.

And with winters shorter and not as severe thats a bonus.. One of my good clients moved from Oregon back to Madison WI  the wife was from Milwaukee..But they did just guy a few condos in Portugal for winters  so first world problems but they departed Oregon for Madison as they felt the schools were better etc etc.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Good schools, good internet, good food, good prices. I think that's the magic 4 factors. I know good food seems a bit weird, I think so, but it's what I see repeatedly in these "z-markets" forming. Apparently food is a really big deal to younger generations, I'm not sure they know stoves are for cooking not gadget storage, lol. 

Not weird at all, good food is a key element to a good life. Ask any Italian. As a born and raised European, I am painfully aware of the scarcity of good quality food in the US. And before you object: yes you can buy it, but it is VERY expensive, both in restaurants and grocery stores. 

Whole Foods would be an about average quality grocery store and they would compete for price. A quart of regular milk is about 1 Euro, grass-fed organic milk is 1.10 - the difference is very small. (1 Euro = roughly 1.1 USD) Here in Milwaukee I pay about about $7 for for a 2 quart container grass-fed. And when I travel to the West coast I find out that is actually cheap!! 

We are caught in that vicious cycle of having to make more money in order to live better, and the utter lack of work-life balance is killing the very quality of life we are trying to achieve by working harder for it.

Europe is a stark contrast, but you see a difference within the US. And I think this is where the Midwest starts to stand out from red-haired step child of past decades to looking pretty good now. The pace of life is a bit more moderate, cost of living definitely is lower and we all know about real estate prices. 

I would also add good health care to that list. Not as obvious, but all the more important when you need it.

I also think that the whole "move south" movement will eventually come around and people will find out that living in TX or FL has also it's downsides. Just look at the news every day, insurance cost is definitely going to continue to go up there.

Based on your input here I am tracking where Costco going to open their new store in 2024/2025. It seems the movement to move to the south is undisputable :

2024 Openings:
Loomis, California - May 2024
North Port, Florida - June 2024
Mt. Juliet, Tennessee - June 2024
Jiangning, China - June 2024
Riverbank, California - June 2024
Richmond, Texas - June 2024
Northwest Omaha, Nebraska - July 2024
Chaska, Minnesota - July 2024
Tomball, Texas - August 2024
Covington, Louisiana - August 2024
Pleasanton, California - August 2024
Ridgefield, Washington - August 2024
Costco also has plans for international expansion in 2024,
with new warehouses opening in:
Cheongna, South Korea - August 2024
Higashiomi, Japan - August 2024
Okinawa Nanjo, Japan - August 2024
2025 Opening:
Stuart, Florida - Spring 2025 

It's all CA/TX/FL/TN , what is interesting is city like Loomis or Tomball is within 45min-1hr from the larger MSA it serves. Tracking these company movement is good way to track new economic activity.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Also what is interesting is the people migrating to/from new cities are making real estate cheaper lol

in the Austin/Houston/Dallas case: companies/people move in -->CRE overbuilding--->real estate prices going down.
while in CA:
company/people leaving the state  --> inventory is still down/less construction -->real estate price going up.

For FL I do expect the prop. insurance changes to be normalized within a few years.

[Ashley Madalone]

I don't think it's a trend, I think it's the reality of the population explosion.  There simply isn't enough housing to keep up with the amount of human overpopulation.  However, "Location, Location, Location" will always be important for real estate because you can't just duplicate a location.  You can always duplicate a house, but you can never duplicate a location.  If people need to be in Manhattan, they will pay Manhattan prices, regardless.  There will never be a new Manhattan, that's why it holds it's value so well.  However, if people can't afford Manhattan, they will move along to somewhere they can afford.  Boohoo, that was me!  Lol, I ended up in Delaware and that migration of people from NY, NJ, MD, PA caused Delaware's prices to double in what feels like overnight.  Investors are always going to gentrify an area, that's how they make the most money.  In turn, folks will always flock to the next new shiny object, especially if it's affordable!  So I don't think it's a trend, I think it's the reality of the play between the population explosion, gentrification, and affordable housing.  My hope is that developers invest with ethics in mind because they are driving people to local governments that are not ready to sustain them.  Our little town was unprepared for the influx and has just decided to raise taxes 100% causing a lot of unhappy townspeople.  Now, we have the highest tax rate in the state but we don't have the best schools, amenities, or location. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Ashley Madalone:

I don't think it's a trend, I think it's the reality of the population explosion.  There simply isn't enough housing to keep up with the amount of human overpopulation.  However, "Location, Location, Location" will always be important for real estate because you can't just duplicate a location.  You can always duplicate a house, but you can never duplicate a location.  If people need to be in Manhattan, they will pay Manhattan prices, regardless.  There will never be a new Manhattan, that's why it holds it's value so well.  However, if people can't afford Manhattan, they will move along to somewhere they can afford.  Boohoo, that was me!  Lol, I ended up in Delaware and that migration of people from NY, NJ, MD, PA caused Delaware's prices to double in what feels like overnight.  Investors are always going to gentrify an area, that's how they make the most money.  In turn, folks will always flock to the next new shiny object, especially if it's affordable!  So I don't think it's a trend, I think it's the reality of the play between the population explosion, gentrification, and affordable housing.  My hope is that developers invest with ethics in mind because they are driving people to local governments that are not ready to sustain them.  Our little town was unprepared for the influx and has just decided to raise taxes 100% causing a lot of unhappy townspeople.  Now, we have the highest tax rate in the state but we don't have the best schools, amenities, or location. 

There's really no population explosion in USA.

Population is actually reducing but as money circulated is growing fastre than population, that drives up the real estate price. It's more like explosion of money, but income actually stagnant as well hence these are weird combination.

Actually in bay area we could see traffic more busy on tuesday than monday and friday. People only start working on tuesday. Also there're more traffic outside the city where the office are compare to traffic inside the city. Most office building inside the city is actually ..... half empty. They said there're lot of layoffs, but all stocks are at all time high. lol

It's dystopian world. Like a phenomenon that one can't describe or decipher easily.

Or probably people is really living in cloud with their 5g everywhere lol

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

some more valuable data :

several suburbs and smaller cities have seen significant population growth in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those located in the South and West regions of the United States. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. Georgetown, Texas - This suburb of Austin was the fastest-growing large city (50,000+ population) in the U.S. for two consecutive years, with a growth rate of 14.4% from July 2021 to July 2022, reaching a population of 86,507. Georgetown's population has increased by over 19,000 since the 2020 census.
2. Leander, Texas - Another suburb of Austin, Leander had a growth rate of 10.9% from 2021-2022 and was among the top 5 fastest-growing large cities. Its population increased from 60,848 in 2020 to 74,375 in 2022.
3. Queen Creek, Arizona and other Phoenix exurbs - The Phoenix metro area surpassed 5 million residents in 2022, with much of the growth concentrated in far-flung exurban communities. Queen Creek and other suburbs like Buckeye and Maricopa were among the fastest-growing large cities with growth rates over 6%.
4. New Braunfels, Texas - Located near San Antonio, New Braunfels had a growth rate of 5.7% from 2021-2022 and a total population of 104,707.
5. Montgomery County, Texas - This suburban county north of Houston grew by 4.3% from 2021 to 2022, part of a 47.7% population increase since 2010

When the absolute value of the city is so small, the percentages appear huge.5% growth rate from 100k to 105k really isn't going to attract industries or shows true tangible growth besides folks just being pushed out of Austin and SA. New Braunfels is a neat little STR spot and some folks have decided since covid to retire there.

 New Braunfels, Leander, Georgetown I bet are getting a bit more attention now then before but they aren't bustling. Same applies to Queen Creek and Buckeye. A small to large cap company is still going to post up in Phoenix or Austin than Queen Creek or Georgetown. I still will bet on the primo areas of Phoenix, Austin over the suburbs. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

some more valuable data :

several suburbs and smaller cities have seen significant population growth in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those located in the South and West regions of the United States. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. Georgetown, Texas - This suburb of Austin was the fastest-growing large city (50,000+ population) in the U.S. for two consecutive years, with a growth rate of 14.4% from July 2021 to July 2022, reaching a population of 86,507. Georgetown's population has increased by over 19,000 since the 2020 census.
2. Leander, Texas - Another suburb of Austin, Leander had a growth rate of 10.9% from 2021-2022 and was among the top 5 fastest-growing large cities. Its population increased from 60,848 in 2020 to 74,375 in 2022.
3. Queen Creek, Arizona and other Phoenix exurbs - The Phoenix metro area surpassed 5 million residents in 2022, with much of the growth concentrated in far-flung exurban communities. Queen Creek and other suburbs like Buckeye and Maricopa were among the fastest-growing large cities with growth rates over 6%.
4. New Braunfels, Texas - Located near San Antonio, New Braunfels had a growth rate of 5.7% from 2021-2022 and a total population of 104,707.
5. Montgomery County, Texas - This suburban county north of Houston grew by 4.3% from 2021 to 2022, part of a 47.7% population increase since 2010

When the absolute value of the city is so small, the percentages appear huge.5% growth rate from 100k to 105k really isn't going to attract industries or shows true tangible growth besides folks just being pushed out of Austin and SA. New Braunfels is a neat little STR spot and some folks have decided since covid to retire there.

 New Braunfels, Leander, Georgetown I bet are getting a bit more attention now then before but they aren't bustling. Same applies to Queen Creek and Buckeye. A small to large cap company is still going to post up in Phoenix or Austin than Queen Creek or Georgetown. I still will bet on the primo areas of Phoenix, Austin over the suburbs. 

I researched this very quickly. The gaps are not that different. Georgetown/Leander median is about 400-450k and Austin is about 550k-600k. It's just Georgetown,TX has a better school district.

It's not like Cupertino 2 mil houses vs Modesto of 400k lol, it seems outside CA the gap is not that wide.

Queen Creek,AZ median is 600k while Phoenix is 450k. So it's not about price. 

All these data points are very interesting...

[Marcus Auerbach]

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

 some support job or programming job really going to "commoditization" mode. One of the reason is becoz first
(a) everyone job including CEO is actually replaceable by someone in thailand or Dominican republic or AI.
(b) to do business in Californa is just too expensive, remote works shows that company can do the same without office
(c) most jobs are shifting to the cloud anyway

the last recent layoffs of microsoft hit into data center support guy while microsoft is donating their cash to nvidia (aka buying off their gpu lol)

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

some more valuable data :

several suburbs and smaller cities have seen significant population growth in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those located in the South and West regions of the United States. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. Georgetown, Texas - This suburb of Austin was the fastest-growing large city (50,000+ population) in the U.S. for two consecutive years, with a growth rate of 14.4% from July 2021 to July 2022, reaching a population of 86,507. Georgetown's population has increased by over 19,000 since the 2020 census.
2. Leander, Texas - Another suburb of Austin, Leander had a growth rate of 10.9% from 2021-2022 and was among the top 5 fastest-growing large cities. Its population increased from 60,848 in 2020 to 74,375 in 2022.
3. Queen Creek, Arizona and other Phoenix exurbs - The Phoenix metro area surpassed 5 million residents in 2022, with much of the growth concentrated in far-flung exurban communities. Queen Creek and other suburbs like Buckeye and Maricopa were among the fastest-growing large cities with growth rates over 6%.
4. New Braunfels, Texas - Located near San Antonio, New Braunfels had a growth rate of 5.7% from 2021-2022 and a total population of 104,707.
5. Montgomery County, Texas - This suburban county north of Houston grew by 4.3% from 2021 to 2022, part of a 47.7% population increase since 2010

When the absolute value of the city is so small, the percentages appear huge.5% growth rate from 100k to 105k really isn't going to attract industries or shows true tangible growth besides folks just being pushed out of Austin and SA. New Braunfels is a neat little STR spot and some folks have decided since covid to retire there.

 New Braunfels, Leander, Georgetown I bet are getting a bit more attention now then before but they aren't bustling. Same applies to Queen Creek and Buckeye. A small to large cap company is still going to post up in Phoenix or Austin than Queen Creek or Georgetown. I still will bet on the primo areas of Phoenix, Austin over the suburbs. 

I researched this very quickly. The gaps are not that different. Georgetown/Leander median is about 400-450k and Austin is about 550k-600k. It's just Georgetown,TX has a better school district.

It's not like Cupertino 2 mil houses vs Modesto of 400k lol, it seems outside CA the gap is not that wide.

Queen Creek,AZ median is 600k while Phoenix is 450k. So it's not about price. 

All these data points are very interesting...

 The income isn't different because they are being employed by the same major metro. My opinion is the industry(small to large cap) will still choose physical location in the city, not suburb. So the underlying land is still better in Phoenix, and Austin, than say Georgetown or Queens Creek. The Cary NC to Durham/Raleigh is somewhat an example of this, same goes for Bellaire to Houston proper. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

This will change everything, literally EVERYTHING. 

[Cory J Thornton]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

 There is a ton of good thought fodder in your reply. It certainly has my wheels turning. If you have a high level of conviction that this technology change will be rapid and we have a high probability of seeing a very different workforce structure, then based on those convictions, what kind of real estate is likely under valued today? I know how change impacts real estate is highly speculative, but this is a thought experiment, not investment advice. Any long term predictions (10+ years)? 

[Raju Balakrishnan]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

 GenAI is a huge advance, no questions about it.  But we should keep in mind that human expectations will change as the capabilities becomes cheaper and faster. For example, if people were ok with having a search engine similar to first version of Google, building the entire google search engine would have been a week high school project. As technology advanced, Google became more complex and advanced so are peoples expectations. 

Similarly, as GenAI becomes available, people will want more and these wants will create more jobs. Thats what essentially happened even with mechanization, computerization and so on. In one line, human needs evolve with available capabilities, and these evolving needs will create new jobs. These jobs  may be different from current ones, but it will happen. A constant factor is human brain, and how our basic brain wants.   This has not changed much in a couple of million years. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

 GenAI is a huge advance, no questions about it.  But we should keep in mind that human expectations will change as the capabilities becomes cheaper and faster. For example, if people were ok with having a search engine similar to first version of Google, building the entire google search engine would have been a week high school project. As technology advanced, Google became more complex and advanced so are peoples expectations. 

Similarly, as GenAI becomes available, people will want more and these wants will create more jobs. Thats what essentially happened even with mechanization, computerization and so on. In one line, human needs evolve with available capabilities, and these evolving needs will create new jobs. These jobs  may be different from current ones, but it will happen. A constant factor is human brain, and how our basic brain wants.   This has not changed much in a couple of million years. 

 I can see in future we would see more job like "AI Specialist" also this AI thing would create a branch technology already. For example the AI that would be used for chatbot is essentially very different than AI for meds.

In our sector it creates a gap also, like Storage/Server that can handle GPU and traditional datacenter that only handle non GPU stuffs. Some company moving to infiniband as it's that's used by the GPU while other is pushing for ethernet.....

In reality, actually, the one that really making Nvidia very rich is the fight between elephant to replace Google. 
It's competition between AWS,Azure,Google Compute in Cloud hahahaha, so when elephant is fighting, the one that makes money is the supplier of the weapon (in this case the nvidia lol). 

AI is pretty much wealth transfer from data center/data modeler company to nvidia

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

It's not going to happen like that. I know there's AI doomers and boomers, it's definitely going to carry some weight but when the boomers push this narrative it's not without a lot of issues that aren't being recognized.

For one, the power for this to happen would require massive, and I mean massive, energy capabilities that just aren't ready right now from a data center level. So while the technology may be running quickly, the ability to warehouse it and let it really conquer America are well behind the curve. I'm not talking a year or two, but a decade plus.  

The biggest question in energy right now is data center electricity consumption and ownership. It's going north, but is it going to double in 2 years or could it go further? Because if it starts trending to double 2024 numbers in 26 or 27, we simply don't have the inputs to create that output. You're going to have AWS, ADS, Meta, all these data center giants fighting tooth and nail against the power grids across the country when we're already showing a great deal of vulnerability. That means AWS will take a nuke plant that is retired or active, and that a locality can't use for when weather becomes a concern. 

The biggest headwinds in the worlds are energy security, acquisition, performance and land ownership. The growth of AI is dead track in the middle of that and while it's persevere it just won't happen in a year or two. One finding the data center locations and two, arguably the hardest, is getting the energy required. The former point is a lot harder than people realize, go with someone to find the land they want to buy for data centers there's so many intrinsic properties required of it's tough cause it's finite-- latency requirements, infrascuture for cooling methods,etc.. It's going to sneak up on the doomers quicker than they think, but it's not going to take over the world like the boomers think tomorrow. 

And don't get me started on the political intervention of it...that's a whole other story. It's not coming tomorrow guys, it's coming sooner than you probably would figure but not immediately. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

It's not going to happen like that. I know there's AI doomers and boomers, it's definitely going to carry some weight but when the boomers push this narrative it's not without a lot of issues that aren't being recognized.

For one, the power for this to happen would require massive, and I mean massive, energy capabilities that just aren't ready right now from a data center level. So while the technology may be running quickly, the ability to warehouse it and let it really conquer America are well behind the curve. I'm not talking a year or two, but a decade plus.  

The biggest question in energy right now is data center electricity consumption and ownership. It's going north, but is it going to double in 2 years or could it go further? Because if it starts trending to double 2024 numbers in 26 or 27, we simply don't have the inputs to create that output. You're going to have AWS, ADS, Meta, all these data center giants fighting tooth and nail against the power grids across the country when we're already showing a great deal of vulnerability. That means AWS will take a nuke plant that is retired or active, and that a locality can't use for when weather becomes a concern. 

The biggest headwinds in the worlds are energy security, acquisition, performance and land ownership. The growth of AI is dead track in the middle of that and while it's persevere it just won't happen in a year or two. One finding the data center locations and two, arguably the hardest, is getting the energy required. The former point is a lot harder than people realize, go with someone to find the land they want to buy for data centers there's so many intrinsic properties required of it's tough cause it's finite-- latency requirements, infrascuture for cooling methods,etc.. It's going to sneak up on the doomers quicker than they think, but it's not going to take over the world like the boomers think tomorrow. 

And don't get me started on the political intervention of it...that's a whole other story. It's not coming tomorrow guys, it's coming sooner than you probably would figure but not immediately. 

 Bladerunner 2049 has the answer.... or were they foretelling like the Simpsons "dun-dun-dunnnnnnnn"....

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

It's not going to happen like that. I know there's AI doomers and boomers, it's definitely going to carry some weight but when the boomers push this narrative it's not without a lot of issues that aren't being recognized.

For one, the power for this to happen would require massive, and I mean massive, energy capabilities that just aren't ready right now from a data center level. So while the technology may be running quickly, the ability to warehouse it and let it really conquer America are well behind the curve. I'm not talking a year or two, but a decade plus.  

The biggest question in energy right now is data center electricity consumption and ownership. It's going north, but is it going to double in 2 years or could it go further? Because if it starts trending to double 2024 numbers in 26 or 27, we simply don't have the inputs to create that output. You're going to have AWS, ADS, Meta, all these data center giants fighting tooth and nail against the power grids across the country when we're already showing a great deal of vulnerability. That means AWS will take a nuke plant that is retired or active, and that a locality can't use for when weather becomes a concern. 

The biggest headwinds in the worlds are energy security, acquisition, performance and land ownership. The growth of AI is dead track in the middle of that and while it's persevere it just won't happen in a year or two. One finding the data center locations and two, arguably the hardest, is getting the energy required. The former point is a lot harder than people realize, go with someone to find the land they want to buy for data centers there's so many intrinsic properties required of it's tough cause it's finite-- latency requirements, infrascuture for cooling methods,etc.. It's going to sneak up on the doomers quicker than they think, but it's not going to take over the world like the boomers think tomorrow. 

And don't get me started on the political intervention of it...that's a whole other story. It's not coming tomorrow guys, it's coming sooner than you probably would figure but not immediately. 

Yes it's expected DC electric consumption would double to 1000 TWH in 2026. Some of the most highest-use DC is located in Virginia, Milwaukee, Alabama, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Mississippi. Our data center is located in Oregon actually.  Most AI data modelers mostly use cloud-based data centers like mentioned above. They dont use Nvidia GPU directly. So when someone is doing something with GPT it just literally utilizes bandwidth in Virginia-located Amazon DC (and increases the power utililization).  What's interesting is that, Data Center is part of real estate as well, and it's one of the subsectors of real estate that wasn't impacted by interest rate hikes, meaning the DC demand is just so exponential that it's not limited by rate hike or power consumption. As of this phenomenan. Due to that rising demand it causes increasing rent to in the area ( for example in Loudoun County Virginia. I read the electricity cost in this area is 10% cheaper than national average. Also, a colder climate is better for DC.

So from this aspect we can see something that's not too obvious, while the job and population is moving to the south, data center or internet data is actually moving to the north lol

[Jack Seiden]

Quote from @Cory J Thornton:

I have been thinking through housing, affordability, and the effect on what until the last few years have been dead markets. Any home with a decent commute to a decent market is not affordable. 

Over the last few years, and even now, I am seeing investors put their capital to work in areas that locals have previously ignored. 

It begs the question, in order to afford a rent, afford an investment property, or a primary home, will price start pushing people to forget the first three rules of Real Estate (location, location, location)? 

As a local example, a recent study showing the migration patterns of folks leaving Raleigh, the #6 city most likely to pick up those residents was Rocky Mount NC. Five years ago, this was not the case and even three years ago people were still highly suspect of that area (myself included). Now I'm starting to see people push much further out to 3-4 layers away from primary job markets completely sacrificing location for cost of ownership or cost of living. 

What do y'all think?

Is this something anyone else is noticing and if it is a trend, is there anything that will make it a short lived thing or is it going to continue longer term?

Absolutely this is a trend and will continue to do so, lack of housing affordability + Remote work, in fact it’s something I call, the housing 1st economy, in that people move to affordable places and the economy grows around them as opposed to the economy pushing a housing boom as has been the case since at least the 20th century. I think if there is one positive to come out of this housing market it would be that, the market of the 2010’s where everyone lived in 10 major metros was really corrosive for the country imo, to the extent we can revitalize areas & spread out, get some regionally back I think it’s great.

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Anyone who works remote is probably going to loose their job in the next couple years to an AI. This is low-hanging fruit for AI, because no physical work.

If you think I am talking about something in the future, you have not kept up the last 8 weeks. Watch the presentation of the latest version of ChatGPT4o and if you don't have much time, skip to min 15 where "she" teaches him how to do math. Tell me your kid's teacher is that smooth explaining math! Link.

And if you think it is going to stop there than watch this: Figure1 robot demonstration. Remember these things are getting rapidly better. Google CEO estimates that we will see their capabilities double every 12-18 months.

Which means factory jobs are being next. Since we are talking about paradigm shifts, this will be the biggest of all. And it is happening faster than society can respond. 

Nvidia is now higher valued as Apple at $3 trillion market cap. Yes, you have read that correctly. Ask 10 random people, 8 have never heard the name, that is how fast things are changing.

In my mind the outcome is crystal clear. Literally of the population will be unemployed. Anyone who works remote or online or does low skill manual labor. Which means as a society we will have to shift to a universal basic income system, like it or not, there is no other way. People need to eat and pay rent.

It's not going to happen like that. I know there's AI doomers and boomers, it's definitely going to carry some weight but when the boomers push this narrative it's not without a lot of issues that aren't being recognized.

For one, the power for this to happen would require massive, and I mean massive, energy capabilities that just aren't ready right now from a data center level. So while the technology may be running quickly, the ability to warehouse it and let it really conquer America are well behind the curve. I'm not talking a year or two, but a decade plus.  

The biggest question in energy right now is data center electricity consumption and ownership. It's going north, but is it going to double in 2 years or could it go further? Because if it starts trending to double 2024 numbers in 26 or 27, we simply don't have the inputs to create that output. You're going to have AWS, ADS, Meta, all these data center giants fighting tooth and nail against the power grids across the country when we're already showing a great deal of vulnerability. That means AWS will take a nuke plant that is retired or active, and that a locality can't use for when weather becomes a concern. 

The biggest headwinds in the worlds are energy security, acquisition, performance and land ownership. The growth of AI is dead track in the middle of that and while it's persevere it just won't happen in a year or two. One finding the data center locations and two, arguably the hardest, is getting the energy required. The former point is a lot harder than people realize, go with someone to find the land they want to buy for data centers there's so many intrinsic properties required of it's tough cause it's finite-- latency requirements, infrascuture for cooling methods,etc.. It's going to sneak up on the doomers quicker than they think, but it's not going to take over the world like the boomers think tomorrow. 

And don't get me started on the political intervention of it...that's a whole other story. It's not coming tomorrow guys, it's coming sooner than you probably would figure but not immediately. 

Yes it's expected DC electric consumption would double to 1000 TWH in 2026. Some of the most highest-use DC is located in Virginia, Milwaukee, Alabama, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Mississippi. Our data center is located in Oregon actually.  Most AI data modelers mostly use cloud-based data centers like mentioned above. They dont use Nvidia GPU directly. So when someone is doing something with GPT it just literally utilizes bandwidth in Virginia-located Amazon DC (and increases the power utililization).  What's interesting is that, Data Center is part of real estate as well, and it's one of the subsectors of real estate that wasn't impacted by interest rate hikes, meaning the DC demand is just so exponential that it's not limited by rate hike or power consumption. As of this phenomenan. Due to that rising demand it causes increasing rent to in the area ( for example in Loudoun County Virginia. I read the electricity cost in this area is 10% cheaper than national average. Also, a colder climate is better for DC.

So from this aspect we can see something that's not too obvious, while the job and population is moving to the south, data center or internet data is actually moving to the north lol

 You have LNG coming on in 2026-2027, making natural gas even more globalized as a commodity. Most of America does not know it, but our energy is cheap & reliable relative to the world. Wait until the business of it allows us to be short energy versus say JKM(Japan-Korea marker) or TTF(Europe) or India starts requiring more input. Then internally, you have AI data centers needing it for themselves-- this will not be easy.

The acquisition of energy is going to make AI delayed, and the land is just going to compound it. It'll be a force, but it just can't fully dominate until it can run at all angles. We're not going to wake up one day with 15% unemployment because AI took our jobs. No political party will let that happen. We'll wake up one day with AI knocking on the door for regulation. 

A process of institutionalized integration and the job scene will change, not get sucked out. The math teaching example is just the progress of AI, do you know how hard it'll be to get that from an OpenAI youtube video to your local public school? I don't expect it to ever get there. I expect AI to just be an incredibly advantageous tool to help the curriculum, not replace it.