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Updated about 8 years ago, 09/30/2016
Houston Housing Market Nearing "Collapse"
Interesting chart! Lost jobs (oil downturn) and over building (especially in multifamily) could cause Houston some headaches. I'd say this article (http://www.bauer.uh.edu/centers/irf/houston-updates.php) from Bauer College of Business would support the idea of Houston has already peaked. What I'm not sure about is the word "collapse".
Robin Williams Natasha Keck Thanks for the great articles! Although the one from Business Insider seems to be a little bit over exaggerated and dramatic, but I agree with the general tone of the article that Houston is going into a decline in housing prices for anything above $250K.
A property listed for $600K is anything but affordable, and there are demand for affordable housing regardless of what kind of housing bubble we're in. Properties less than $150K are still moving pretty well in good areas.
In general, be conservative when you buy and keep in mind how the general economy might affect your strategy when it comes to financing terms. As someone told me earlier this year, you see the train coming, the train being Houston housing prices, does that make you stop buy? No take into account the incoming collision, drop in prices, and buy if it's a "good" deal. The key word is a "good" deal.
Definitely some over-building going on over here.
Oil can be tricky. Strong fluctuations tend to affect the Energy Corridor most. Low oil prices can even be a boon for the ship channel area since many of the chemical plants use it as feedstock.
The Houston metro is such a large place geographically and quite diverse economically. Uptown is quite different than Clear Lake, but all within the city limits.
Thanks for sharing the Bauer report Natasha Keck.
The first through the third wave is always the most profitable. Once everyone is on the wagon, it's time to fall off.
@Chuck Webb I wonder what new and different opportunities "post-peak" Houston will provide to investors?
I am still pretty new to this, but it seems like the best time to buy and hold was about 2009/2010.
I've said this before...if you have cash you want to invest, there are insurance policies you can utilize making 8 to 10%. Depending on your policy and the amount you have invested, let's say 180 in a 500k policy, you can later borrow 100k when you find a good RE deal. Your policy will still be making 8 to 10% on 180k. No closing costs or fees, funds out in two weeks. Do your deal, cash out on your flip or equity capture in a buy and hold....pay back your policy and keep the profit. It's your personal bank, however you have to build it.
Chuck Webb what kind of policy are you referring? Who you recommend getting a policy with and how long do you have to hold the policy before you can borrow?
According to HAR:
"inventory levels continue to outpace last year, rising from a 3.5-months supply to 4.0 months. That is the largest supply of homes since November 2012 when it stood at 4.1 months."
Broken out by housing segment, July sales performed as follows:
$1 - $79,999: decreased 43.3 percent
$80,000 - $149,999: decreased 32.8 percent
$150,000 - $249,999: decreased 3.1 percent
$250,000 - $499,999: decreased 1.4 percent
$500,000 and above: decreased 21.7 percent
Downstream sector in the energy industry such as refineries will see more margin in a energy down market, because of low commodity cost. I was once told, West Houston represents the upstream sector, Downton Houston represents Midstream/Marketing/Corporate, East Houston as the downstream.
I don't think we are on the verge of collapse. I do a lot of market research that I give away for free on my newsletter (see bp post linking). In my opinion the market is softening a bit to return to normal Houston levels. Collapse is very unlikely. Houston economy is about 7% oil and gas, and as @Sean Xin mentioned downstream is actually benefitting from the lower oil prices. I think the area that will suffer most (though not detrimentally) is the energy corridor.
I'm watching office space vacancies and speaking with some insiders in the city. They see a downturn on the horizon, but nothing near a collapse.
I haven't really looked. I wonder if preliminary FEMA maps will change due to the flooding this year. Would be interesting to see values drop drastically due to premiums in older neighborhoods.
@Kevin Wood @Sean Xin I agree with your general comments on Houston but the downstream statements are a bit oversimplified. The refiners benefit based on the crack spread which is the margin between price of a barrel of oil and price they can sell the refined products that come out of that barrel (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc...).
Refiners often benefit from a drop in crude prices because there's frequently a lag between a drop in crude price and the drop in the price of outputs. Meaning the price at the gas pump doesn't move as quick as the price per barrel. However this relationship doesn't always hold and if a downturn lasts very long, the 2 will equal out and the benefit disappears. The gasoline demand is also a key component.
If you go check out the refiners in 2016 they aren't doing particularly well as crack spreads have tightened significantly.
@Adam Chudy Thanks for the info!
@Kevin Wood 1.26 million SF of commercial lease space hit the market in July. All the numbers are funny across the board. More than one realtor has told me that less than 5% of residential deals in Houston that go to close actually do close.
The value of an income stream which is what rental property is, goes up as interest rates decline. Along with that actual rents have risen dramatically . We should not be surprised at some decline. New residential construction is higher, and has a smaller footprint. While builders attempt to catch up assets will not decline. Material and labor remain cheap. In short our assets price has increased our rents have increased and the value of that is increased by the time value of money. Set back enjoy the ride it is not over but may be turbulent.
@Adam Chudy thanks for the info. Is there anywhere I can look at this spread online? Would like to incorporate it into my newsletter.
@Chuck Webb what do you mean by your 5% comment. That seems very low if you mean that only 5% of houses are closing.
@Kevin Wood you google crack spreads and you can find it in lots of places. You'll probably have to do some reading / learning though to get context for what your looking at.