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Updated almost 10 years ago, 01/28/2015
The Recovery is Real
I was very happy to have had the opportunity to defend the housing recovery on Fox Business last week. Too many people make a name for themselves in the media for tearing down confidence in our beloved market. Here is a link to the segment.
I know some viewers think I am being Pollyanna, but they don't see what I see everyday. For example, take a look at these 20 year home price appreciation charts for various markets. Notice how each market had a different trajectory, enjoyed a boom, suffered a correction and made it back to the trend line that was established early in the chart.
This is the equilibrium I see all over the country. The market was like a sleeping bear. When it was jabbed with a sharp stick, it mauled us, and went back to rest. The recovery is real. The data back me up. Naysayers will always be out there, but we need to fight back.
@Greg Rand Nice first post! Love the vote of confidence in the market. Welcome to the site, it looks like you have lots to offer.
Thanks for sharing...
Thanks- great job. I try to show that RE is back and going strong and this backs my argument.
Thank you for sharing!
Would you be able to pull a graph like this on other areas that werent so impacted by the bubble? Like Austin, TX.
I would love to see indianapolis also if you can. Or point me in the direction where I can see this is fine also.
Thanks a bunch. Love the post!
" ... and made it back to the trend line that was established early in the chart."
Looking at those charts, it it appears appreciation didn't make it back to the trend line post correction. For the most part I see a positive trend line pre-bubble and a flat trend line post-bubble.
Looks great!
It is interesting that all 3 markets seem to show a slight decline between 2013-2014. On the positive side, it does seem that most markets are off the bottom.
Originally posted by @Ron P.:
" ... and made it back to the trend line that was established early in the chart."
Looking at those charts, it it appears appreciation didn't make it back to the trend line post correction. For the most part I see a positive trend line pre-bubble and a flat trend line post-bubble.
Hi Ron!
I am referring to the trend line established during the boring period from 1996 through the point where it got steep. Some markets have unrealized upside coming their way, like Tampa. BUt in general, the volatility of the boom and bust are more easily understood when in context like this. Volatility is not the normal way. We are back to normal now.
Originally posted by @Joel A.:
Would you be able to pull a graph like this on other areas that werent so impacted by the bubble? Like Austin, TX.
I would love to see indianapolis also if you can. Or point me in the direction where I can see this is fine also.
Thanks a bunch. Love the post!
Hi. Here you go...
Some of the data might be skewed because of these are non disclosure states. Indy, for example, has no data before 2004. You happened to pick two of the few places where the charts are not as smooth. This technology is called AQ (stands for asset quality). You can find it on my website.
Thanks for the upload. Wow, i was not expecting to see that in Austin at all. Really erratic behavior and for the most part, almost following the same trend as the rest of the US. Very interesting! I figured it would be a more solid line just going up.
As for indy, I actually really like what I see on that graph. So much stability with it consistently increasing, albeit at a super slow rate but this only confirms what I expected and makes me happy im purchasing in Indy right now for long term cash flow.
Thanks again. Ill check your site out.
Originally posted by @Greg Rand:
Originally posted by @Ron P.:
" ... and made it back to the trend line that was established early in the chart."
Looking at those charts, it it appears appreciation didn't make it back to the trend line post correction. For the most part I see a positive trend line pre-bubble and a flat trend line post-bubble.
Hi Ron!
I am referring to the trend line established during the boring period from 1996 through the point where it got steep. Some markets have unrealized upside coming their way, like Tampa. BUt in general, the volatility of the boom and bust are more easily understood when in context like this. Volatility is not the normal way. We are back to normal now.
I'm comparing the boring period from 1996 to roughly 2004 with the period roughly 2010 to present, observing based strictly on the charts that the boring period is a positive slope and the 2010 to present period is a flat slope, indicating to me that we have not " ... made it back to the trend line that was established early in the chart." I am by no means a market analyst, real estate or otherwise, but I have looked at a lot of charts and to me the appreciation slope pre-bubble looks positive and the post-bubble slope looks flat, for the most part, based on your charts, probably most evident in the Hillsborough County chart, but present in all the charts.
Flat is not necessarily a bad thing. I think the charts do show we are recovered. Recover doesnt have to mean on its way back up again.
Now that all those bad mortgages arent being handed out to the masses, i dont see why there would be a huge jump in the market. I mean im no expert or anything but wouldnt you say what caused the bubble to begin with was that all the joe schmoe's who could never get a house were buying houses which in turn leads to that spike.
Who is going to be buying all the houses now? Just the people that qualify and investors which were the same people purchasing before the spike.
Originally posted by @Joel A.:
Flat is not necessarily a bad thing. I think the charts do show we are recovered. Recover doesnt have to mean on its way back up again.
Now that all those bad mortgages arent being handed out to the masses, i dont see why there would be a huge jump in the market. I mean im no expert or anything but wouldnt you say what caused the bubble to begin with was that all the joe schmoe's who could never get a house were buying houses which in turn leads to that spike.
Who is going to be buying all the houses now? Just the people that qualify and investors which were the same people purchasing before the spike.
Agreed!
I'm simply saying the charts don't indicate we are back on the pre-bubble appreciation trend line.
Another interesting graph is the long term (like 100 year) trend for median home price adjusted for inflation. So, is the recovery real? Are we blowing another bubble?
very useful info! Great motivation! Thanks Greg! Welcome to BP! I can see you'll definitely be an asset to this site!
would you mind sharing your source of information? I'd love to be able to see what different markets look like.