Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Randall Weatherall]

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

[Greg Scott]

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford.  We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes.  When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity.  They couldn't sell and get out.  We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value.  We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers.  Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X.  Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering.  They had to make up the difference with cash.  Those people have a ton of equity in their homes.  If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed. 

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

Ok, so I don't deny the amount of regs re: lending, but let's be honest. Good lenders are able to manipulate DTI and bend the numbers to get people into loans that they can barley afford. Let's not pretend that all the people who purchased in this over-inflated market are super stable and can't foreclose. I personally know people who are living check to check and who bit off more than they could chew thinking that they had to buy during the recent housing craze. 

So I respectfully disagree... there is a house of cards that will come tumbling down.

[Shiela R.]

Hi @Greg R. I'm new to BP but not new to REI. OF course, no one knows what the market is going to do exactly. But by studying economic trends and considering market cycles, I do believe certain markets are going to slow significantly. Some may even crash. I'm already seeing it in certain areas with price reductions and DOM increasing. However, I take issue with your question in that there is no national REI market forecast just as there is no national weather forecast.  I mean, here in CO it is not uncommon for it to be sunny and clear skies in the front yard but raining in the backyard;) Just as it's not uncommon for one property to sit on the market where another still is sold with a bidding war. 

We must be experts in the markets we are investing in.  I do believe there will be some reckoning with those not using the sound principles of investing - particularly buying right aka buying at a discount.  And you are correct in that so many (60%+/- is coming to mind but can't recall the source) do live pay check to pay check.  If you just listen, the Fed raising rates and increased inflation, reduced consumer spending is building a recession. And that will be an opportunity for the rest of us.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Shiela R.:

Hi @Greg R. I'm new to BP but not new to REI. OF course, no one knows what the market is going to do exactly. But by studying economic trends and considering market cycles, I do believe certain markets are going to slow significantly. Some may even crash. I'm already seeing it in certain areas with price reductions and DOM increasing. However, I take issue with your question in that there is no national REI market forecast just as there is no national weather forecast.  I mean, here in CO it is not uncommon for it to be sunny and clear skies in the front yard but raining in the backyard;) Just as it's not uncommon for one property to sit on the market where another still is sold with a bidding war. 

We must be experts in the markets we are investing in.  I do believe there will be some reckoning with those not using the sound principles of investing - particularly buying right aka buying at a discount.  And that will be an opportunity for the rest of us.

Hi @Shiela R., of course there is no "national RE market", but there are certainly national trends. For instance, for the most part, a year ago RE markets nationally were on fire. Sure, some places more than others. Similarly, back in 2008 the crash was **almost** national. I'm sure there's someone here that can argue that a certain market/ pocket didn't crash, but I'm not here to argue those nuances. 

[Bill B.]

Thank goodness they bought a home then or they’d be homeless. Rents are up 20-30% while their payment stayed the same. Sure they could sell and walk away with a pretty healthy gain. But rent would eat that up within a year or two and then back to homeless. 

You cant count the number of people who didn’t buy for the last 2 years because they were promised a housing crash was coming. Now prices are 30% higher and interest rates have doubled. They’ll never be able to buy a home, even if prices did drop 20%. They’re pretty much screwed for life. 

The “experts” have been predicting a crash for at least 12 years. They want to make sure they get credit for predicting it this time. The news made hero’s out of those who saw it last time and everyone wants to be a hero. So they runaround yelling fire fire fire. Go ahead and search BP for housing crash coming. Your computer will probably crash with the number of results. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Bill B.:

Thank goodness they bought a home then or they’d be homeless. Rents are up 20-30% while their payment stayed the same. Sure they could sell and walk away with a pretty healthy gain. But rent would eat that up within a year or two and then back to homeless. 

You cant count the number of people who didn’t buy for the last 2 years because they were promised a housing crash was coming. Now prices are 30% higher and interest rates have doubled. They’ll never be able to buy a home, even if prices did drop 20%. They’re pretty much screwed for life. 

The “experts” have been predicting a crash for at least 12 years. They want to make sure they get credit for predicting it this time. The news made hero’s out of those who saw it last time and everyone wants to be a hero. So they runaround yelling fire fire fire. Go ahead and search BP for housing crash coming. Your computer will probably crash with the number of results. 

Ahh, thanks Bill. I knew folks like you were still around... ones in the camp of "if you didn't buy during the bubble, you'll never be able to buy". Thanks for making your stance known. 

Also, which experts were predicting a crash in 2011-2019? I personally didn't hear a lot of talk about a crash in that timespan. The economy and the housing market was in a generally healthy place - very different from where we are now economically. 

[Paul De Luca]

Agreed with @Bill B.

@Greg R. check out this link showing Kiyosaki's predictions from 2011-2021+ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/t...

He's been making the same prediction for over a decade and I can only shake my head. People like him, Patrick Bet David, Peter Schiff, and a host of other people in the space have been "predicting" a crash for many years. I say this as a Kiyosaki fan that has read several of his books. 

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...

"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."

[Nicholas L.]

@Greg R.

Serious question for you - what is your definition of "crash"?  Is it... the overall median US home price going down 10%, or 20%, or 50%?  Or... 20% or 50% declines in one or more large markets?  Or.... something else?

I certainly don't think a correction is impossible... nor do I think that prices will only increase... but, I'm personally a little confused about the whole market and honestly, not sure what to expect =-) prices are now SO MUCH HIGHER than they were even 5 years ago that a major "correction" would still leave them above that high watermark.

What do you think?

[Russell Brazil]

The Last 2 housing crashes were 75 years apart. They are incredibly rare occurrences. Each of which were largely driven by a lack of the availability of credit and debt. 

Not only do we not have a lack of availability and debt, we have 100% exactly the opposite problem. A rapid increase in the money supply in Spring of 2020 has created large inflationary preasure. This has happened before in the early 1970s. The same result that happened then, is happening now....high inflation. High inflationary environments typically take about a decade to work themselves out.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Greg R.

Serious question for you - what is your definition of "crash"?  Is it... the overall median US home price going down 10%, or 20%, or 50%?  Or... 20% or 50% declines in one or more large markets?  Or.... something else?

I certainly don't think a correction is impossible... nor do I think that prices will only increase... but, I'm personally a little confused about the whole market and honestly, not sure what to expect =-) prices are now SO MUCH HIGHER than they were even 5 years ago that a major "correction" would still leave them above that high watermark.

What do you think?

"A housing bubble, or real estate bubble, is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation, and exuberant spending to the point of collapse. Housing bubbles usually start with an increase in demand, in the face of limited supply, which takes a relatively extended period to replenish and increase. Speculators pour money into the market, further driving up demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices—and the bubble bursts." 

I would say take the 10 years prior to the bubble and get the average rate of appreciation. Use the same rate of appreciation for 2021 & 2022, once you get to where values are at that point, that's the market correction. Crash is beyond that. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Russell Brazil:

The Last 2 housing crashes were 75 years apart. They are incredibly rare occurrences. Each of which were largely driven by a lack of the availability of credit and debt. 

Not only do we not have a lack of availability and debt, we have 100% exactly the opposite problem. A rapid increase in the money supply in Spring of 2020 has created large inflationary preasure. This has happened before in the early 1970s. The same result that happened then, is happening now....high inflation. High inflationary environments typically take about a decade to work themselves out.

You are welcome to form your own opinions, but the only market crash we need to look at is 2008. The economy, geo-politics, property rights, regulations, taxation, investing, banking, the stock market, and currencies (to name a few), were completely different "back in the day". Credit scores weren't even a thing until 1990. These aren't the same times when grandpapi was paying $.05 per gallon of gas. Makes no sense to look at ancient days when trying to analyze a modern-day housing crisis. 

And yes, in 2008 we know lending was lose, there were appraisal problems, etc. But there are also similarities. In addition to those similarities, there is a new set of problems associated with the upcoming crash. 

With that, I believe that we're going to see housing market crashes on a fairly regular basis going forward. not every few years, but definitely not once every 75 years. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Paul De Luca:

Agreed with @Bill B.

@Greg R. check out this link showing Kiyosaki's predictions from 2011-2021+ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/t...

He's been making the same prediction for over a decade and I can only shake my head. People like him, Patrick Bet David, Peter Schiff, and a host of other people in the space have been "predicting" a crash for many years. I say this as a Kiyosaki fan that has read several of his books. 

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...

"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."

I don't consider these guys experts. In my opinion they are the Logan Paul's or the Kardashian's of investing. They are social media junkies who love fame & attention. 

[Greg Scott]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

Ok, so I don't deny the amount of regs re: lending, but let's be honest. Good lenders are able to manipulate DTI and bend the numbers to get people into loans that they can barley afford. Let's not pretend that all the people who purchased in this over-inflated market are super stable and can't foreclose. I personally know people who are living check to check and who bit off more than they could chew thinking that they had to buy during the recent housing craze. 

So I respectfully disagree... there is a house of cards that will come tumbling down.

It appears you live in California.  I used to live in LA.  Yes, if I lived in California, I would worry about (or be hopeful for) a housing crash.  Housing prices are high and the wealthiest people are leaving the state.  Remote work has allowed a lot of people to retain their salary and live in places they can actually afford.  I could see prices crashing down there.

My Eastern-most investment is Atlanta and Western-most is Phoenix, with a huge center of gravity pretty close to the center of the country.  I invest in cities with population and income growth. I sleep very well at night.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

Ok, so I don't deny the amount of regs re: lending, but let's be honest. Good lenders are able to manipulate DTI and bend the numbers to get people into loans that they can barley afford. Let's not pretend that all the people who purchased in this over-inflated market are super stable and can't foreclose. I personally know people who are living check to check and who bit off more than they could chew thinking that they had to buy during the recent housing craze. 

So I respectfully disagree... there is a house of cards that will come tumbling down.

 I just look back on my Career and the very best year I had for buying Foreclosures was 2004.. ( because in 2010 I was out of bullets LOL) there are ALWAYS people who bite off more than can choose.. Get divorced die  cant manage their personal finances have to bail kids out of jail and pay for said kids lawyer.. that kind of upset.

But I dont recall anyone really saying that the appreciation was going to continue I remember folks saying it would calm down or stop or values retreat a little.. but most folks dont for see a blood bath.. I was just talking to my Customer service rep at my title company and he just had the big wigs from Toll Brothers on his boat for some salmon Fishing off of the ORegon coast and they predict very slow 23 and their stock reflects that but are gearing up big time for 24 rebound.. so who knows right. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

I respectfully disagree. The house of cards is this - too many people....millions.....bought houses with hugely inflated prices in the past few years. This is especially true in certain areas. It's gonna suck to own a home that you bought for $800k that is only worth, say, $500k....especially if you bought that with any type of adjustable loan.....

I do agree that it will not be a full-on 'crash', but more a serious correction. It has already started. look at the stats...

[Joseph Beilke]

@Greg R.

I agree with you mostly, on what is driving this crazy train.  But and its a big "But" If you look carefully over a 40ish year span most markets are on average 10-20% over and above what "Normal" should be with 2.5% to 3% year over year appreciation.  In Palm Coast Florida where I am, a 20% drop would put us 1.43% over 12 month Median Sale price change.  I would call that a correction.  I really think the nation will see a correction, but a some market will see a crash, and If I was a betting man it would be places that are taxed heavy, proposed rent controls, and political unfavorable for investors and business. Add that and more places being able to work remote and National crash seems unlikely.  Area's that are the opposite will see a correction in my opinion and normal growth.  But I don't have a crystal ball, so we all are just giving our 2 cent based on our own research.  

[David Song]

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

[Sergey A. Petrov]

Real estate, mostly, appreciates. Some local economies crashed and never came back which depressed real estate values. If you are looking to get in, make a quick buck, and get out, you are gambling not investing. There will always be ups and downs. If you over leverage yourself, you blame the market for forcing you into bankruptcy 

[Alex Hochberger]

A correction is a 10% decline in a market.

A bear market is a 20% decline in a market.

A crash is sudden and abrupt.

I don't think that there will be a housing crash does NOT mean "real estate always goes up" it does mean that we don't expect a rapid crash. Some markets may go bear, many more will correct. Others will flatline, and some will grow. The likelihood of an abrupt collapse of housing prices by 25%-30% (the normal concept of a crash) seems unlikely.

Demand for housing is up from pre-pandemic - divorces (creating dual households), new family formation, plus a "work from home" reality that creates a demand for larger living spaces (extra bedrooms) all shifts the demand curve outward. Supply chain problems shifts the supply curve leftward. That will create a new equilibrium of higher prices in a slower market. Now if your particular market expanded more than the economy can support, a local bear market is very likely.

In general, real estate tracks wage growth. If high inflation throws us into a severe recession (not the baby one we just went through and are denying happened), all bets are off. But otherwise, the wage growth and inflation should power nominal real estate prices.

[Russell Brazil]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Russell Brazil:

The Last 2 housing crashes were 75 years apart. They are incredibly rare occurrences. Each of which were largely driven by a lack of the availability of credit and debt. 

Not only do we not have a lack of availability and debt, we have 100% exactly the opposite problem. A rapid increase in the money supply in Spring of 2020 has created large inflationary preasure. This has happened before in the early 1970s. The same result that happened then, is happening now....high inflation. High inflationary environments typically take about a decade to work themselves out.

You are welcome to form your own opinions, but the only market crash we need to look at is 2008. The economy, geo-politics, property rights, regulations, taxation, investing, banking, the stock market, and currencies (to name a few), were completely different "back in the day". Credit scores weren't even a thing until 1990. These aren't the same times when grandpapi was paying $.05 per gallon of gas. Makes no sense to look at ancient days when trying to analyze a modern-day housing crisis. 

And yes, in 2008 we know lending was lose, there were appraisal problems, etc. But there are also similarities. In addition to those similarities, there is a new set of problems associated with the upcoming crash. 

With that, I believe that we're going to see housing market crashes on a fairly regular basis going forward. not every few years, but definitely not once every 75 years. 

 5 cents a gallon and no credit scores in 1990? Youve clearly with this statement screamed loud and clear to us not to trust any opinions you have on the subject lol. "Ancient history"....those who forget the past are doomed to relive it.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness. 

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness. 

Fun topic @Greg R.: 
The real concern is layoffs, evictions and inflation. Will that affect housing prices? Sure, but it's sneaky. It walks up behind you and bites you in the butt. 
And . . . it doesn't happen all at once. It wil take a year to clear out the existing "hidden inventory" of foreclosures now that foreclosures are starting up again. But with rents going so high, so fast, expect a lot of evictions coming in a tidal wave over the next 6 months. 
Then what? With all of these people having a recent eviction on their record, who is going to rent to them?
That problem hasn't been solved, because it hasn't presented itself yet, but like the sun rising tomorrow, it's on it's way.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

I respectfully disagree. The house of cards is this - too many people....millions.....bought houses with hugely inflated prices in the past few years. This is especially true in certain areas. It's gonna suck to own a home that you bought for $800k that is only worth, say, $500k....especially if you bought that with any type of adjustable loan.....

I do agree that it will not be a full-on 'crash', but more a serious correction. It has already started. look at the stats...

Very true... not too unlike the 2k8 crash, people are buying homes they cannot afford. Especially when hyper inflation kicks in and costs for necessities start skyrocketing. Are we considering the new 87,000 IRS agents, and when they turning over every stone and looking for money we owe, revenue we never claimed, filing errors, etc.

What is the max DTI one can get an approval at? Depends on the loan and several other variables. Regardless, the max DTI is more than what most people can afford. That DTI calc is putting them at a very thin margin where all a minor expense could mean not making the mortgage... It doesn't account for child care, health care, auto/ transport, food, skyrocketing utilities, raising property taxes, materials/ maintenance, etc., etc. Yeah on paper someone might be able to afford a mortgage w/ 35-40% DTI, but the day after closing they go and buy the new car, put the long awaited family vacation on the credit card.

Most home owners are not investors, for them a house is a liability, it's a very high op-ex. For investors it's the opposite, if we're doing it right we're positively cash flowing and making a strong ROI. 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness. 

 Foolishness   little harsh dont you think ?   WE flip a lot of property and build new..  what i have seen is new builds sales are not nearly what they were a few years ago and more in line with 2016 pace.  So far for me at least prices have held ..  In the cash flow deals we do its nothing has slowed down at all so all those cash flow flippers are doing quite well as rents have risen to the point that higher rates the cash flows are just the same and those that have low interest debt are really looking good right now for buying in Jan Feb.. :)  

I think if/when we have a crash it will be the same suspects as 08  CA VEgas Phx  were values ran up real quick.. I sold one of my Vegas properties that went up over 30% in one year and then when i put it on market I sold it for 40k over ask and that was in May of this year.. 

The other thing people are not mentioning and most dont really know.. Is it really depends on the state your in.. For owner occ.. Purchase Money mortgages there is no deficiency judgement allowed by law. This is true in  CA OR WA NV AZ and a few others.. In other states does not matter the lender can and will go after deficiencies ( think Texas) .  This  is one reason the melt down was so severe in  CA NV and AZ in 08  the only thing owner occ's lost was equity and credit score they did not have anyone coming after them ( unless they had second mortgages those the lender can get a deficiency. 

I wanted to add some real stats for my Oregon new builds.. Price points 675k to 850k.. I started 14 specs in Q 1 I have sold 8 of them all for full price plus extras..  No bidding wars of course as I dont really like that  but Zero concessions and Extra's of course carry a nice mark up for all the time and effort we take to customize these homes for the buyers.

But lets talk about these buyers.. 6 of the 8 are empty nesters one paid cash two paid very large down's and decided to use their VA loans so their loans were less than 50% ARV. The others sold properties are put 20 to 40% down.. Again though we are going to have to work for it unlike the years past were it was taking orders. We also have substantial equity in this project with a great bank and banker so if we have to hold its only going to cost me about 10k a month to hold 40 million worth of retail sales and we can do that for a very long time if we needed to.

On our mid west east coast fundings for flippers for mainly investor purchases IE these are rental houses.. so our clients either sell to the cash flow investor or they are BRRR even with rates going up to 7 to 8% on BRRR my clients are in these good enough and rents have risen enough ( even section 8) that these still cash flow with very little or no money out of their pocket.

I just did two in N. Ohio for one of my clients I 100% funded it for them plus i fund 100% of rehab. So all they do is pay utls.. and they refinanced with local bank got 25k cash back and are positive over 600 a month on the two..  that was two weeks ago in just one of the 5 markets i do this in.  Of course I only work with very experienced locals I dont do this for the general public.