Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[J. Mitchell Bernier]

We will know more very soon, look what is going in the UK and mortgage companies are pulling funding on mortgage products. What happens there is going to be a precursor to here. Last data was published was from July and August data wont be out till Oct 19th. If the median price starts to turn there then we will know if it is on our horizon. The Median Price in the UK is 292,118 pounds. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Sebastian Marroquin:

I'm always curious to know - of the people that think a crash is coming 100%: why not sell your home or homes now and - stash the money under your mattress and then buy for .30 to .50 cents on the dollar? Why not (maybe because we ALL don't really know what's going to happen). 

Because all of my properties are unique, and if I sold, I would have to buy others to replace....just wouldn't make sense.

I am however preparing to jump in when the prices do hit what I believe will be the low....

[Tony Kim]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

 We call that a Tenant! 

A tenant with a soon to be 20 percent discount! 

I did say not to cherry pick markets, yet you cite your local market. That’s great, your market may not go down a full 20 percent, but the us median home value June 2022 will drop at least 20 percent. After the data today, it’s already declining.

Your theory on sellers won’t sell so prices will stay high, assumes you are in a utopia where everyone gets together and says nobody will sell. Reality says otherwise, and just because John doe puts his foot down and decides not to give a price cut, his neighbor will and that will drag down John does home value to an appraiser and the market and poof there went the phantom equity 

 Lol, ok, so you have just decided everything is going to be 20% less, just cause. 

People are going to sell at loss's, just cause. 

Rents will go down, just cause. 

Lol, ok, great basis. 

Your contradicting yourself. People pushed out of homes but rents go down, yeah, that makes sense. 

So let me get this straight, in your version of reality the Fed raises interest rates, so everyone get's together and decides to sell their homes to each other at 80% or less of it's market value today, just cause. So everyone starts trading homes like baseball cards at lower and lower prices. And rents start dropping because, IDK, I guess tenants saw homeowners at that meeting and held there own and collectively agreed to stop renting places? 

To clarify, is there anything in your world that inflation will not LOWER the price of? Are autos getting cheaper too? Food? Because i think I want to come vacation in your world, it sounds nice, contradictory to pretty much everything but, nice and cheap, lol. 

I stand by my guarantee that with the fed at a 4-5 percent fed funds rate, which we will be at by end of year (and is already being priced into mortgage rates), and assuming it’s held there for 2023( with they are committing to). Then it’s a guarantee median home values will be down 20 percent (overall usa housing not specific markets). By end of 2023 relative to June 2022 (18 month horizon)

if fed pivots and lowers rate before they plan, then that changes things, but they are saying they won’t now. Get back to me next year when you have buyers in distress, I’ll buy them from you. 

 Aside from all the other stuff, exactly what is going to put a person into "distress"? 

Still not answer to say what is going to FORCE persons to sell, at descending prices. 

It's always caused by the same thing.... inability to pay the debt servicing costs. Generally happens first with larger multi-units due to overdevelopment. Since commercial real estate is a significant part of the economy, this can help drive a recession, which will then potentially affect home-owners and their ability to pay debt servicing costs. This is when foreclosures and distressed sales begin with primary residences. 

[John Carbone]

@James Hamling

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

well this escalted quickly, Central banks in asia and the uk did a coordinated intervention in the bond markets this morning. Looks like markets here are pricing in a fed pivot already 😂….we will see if grandpa powell has some sorcery in his toolbox, why would the foreign central banks be doing this if interest rates don’t matter? 

 If central banks are seeing the result of the higher rates and reintroducing quantitative easing while hiking (another first of its kind I believe we didn’t see this in 08 but I could be wrong). and again this isn’t from me, it’s from Bank of England in response to surging bond yield….but sure, you are right…you are the number 1 broker at your firm.

“In a statement Wednesday, the central bank said it was monitoring the “significant repricing” of U.K. and global assets in recent days, which has hit long-dated U.K. government debt particularly hard.”

“Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability. This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy,” the Bank of England said.

Hmm “repricing of assets” due to higher rates……HOUSING????????? Reduction of flow to the “real economy”….. HOUSING????? Do you need it written in crayons? but please reply back to me again with charts that go back to 2012 that you use on clients in your pitch deck showing them “housing never goes down” 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @James Hamling:

People only sell when the price makes sense to them.

Or when they are forced to. Or when they are running scared. Or when they just have a lapse in judgement. Or their wife makes them. Or.........

I must be a lot older than you because I've seen this movie before.....Several times....

I've experienced all the movies like "The 80% Hyper-Inflation in 1998" , "The Dotcom crash of 2001","Lehman collapse of 2008"
and now "The Great Reset of 2022".

It's very funny watching the headlines today "The IMF is advising UK Gov. not to do tax cut". Who wants IMF btw. 

This time it was bigger than just real estate. All of these just because someone used truck is more expensive than a new truck LOL
It's the beginning of a multi-polar multi-currency financial world.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Tony Kim:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

 We call that a Tenant! 

A tenant with a soon to be 20 percent discount! 

I did say not to cherry pick markets, yet you cite your local market. That’s great, your market may not go down a full 20 percent, but the us median home value June 2022 will drop at least 20 percent. After the data today, it’s already declining.

Your theory on sellers won’t sell so prices will stay high, assumes you are in a utopia where everyone gets together and says nobody will sell. Reality says otherwise, and just because John doe puts his foot down and decides not to give a price cut, his neighbor will and that will drag down John does home value to an appraiser and the market and poof there went the phantom equity 

 Lol, ok, so you have just decided everything is going to be 20% less, just cause. 

People are going to sell at loss's, just cause. 

Rents will go down, just cause. 

Lol, ok, great basis. 

Your contradicting yourself. People pushed out of homes but rents go down, yeah, that makes sense. 

So let me get this straight, in your version of reality the Fed raises interest rates, so everyone get's together and decides to sell their homes to each other at 80% or less of it's market value today, just cause. So everyone starts trading homes like baseball cards at lower and lower prices. And rents start dropping because, IDK, I guess tenants saw homeowners at that meeting and held there own and collectively agreed to stop renting places? 

To clarify, is there anything in your world that inflation will not LOWER the price of? Are autos getting cheaper too? Food? Because i think I want to come vacation in your world, it sounds nice, contradictory to pretty much everything but, nice and cheap, lol. 

I stand by my guarantee that with the fed at a 4-5 percent fed funds rate, which we will be at by end of year (and is already being priced into mortgage rates), and assuming it’s held there for 2023( with they are committing to). Then it’s a guarantee median home values will be down 20 percent (overall usa housing not specific markets). By end of 2023 relative to June 2022 (18 month horizon)

if fed pivots and lowers rate before they plan, then that changes things, but they are saying they won’t now. Get back to me next year when you have buyers in distress, I’ll buy them from you. 

 Aside from all the other stuff, exactly what is going to put a person into "distress"? 

Still not answer to say what is going to FORCE persons to sell, at descending prices. 

It's always caused by the same thing.... inability to pay the debt servicing costs. Generally happens first with larger multi-units due to overdevelopment. Since commercial real estate is a significant part of the economy, this can help drive a recession, which will then potentially affect home-owners and their ability to pay debt servicing costs. This is when foreclosures and distressed sales begin with primary residences. 

 I don't really understand this, can you clarify please. 

Are you saying MFH is where it will all start? That MFH owners will start defaulting, and some cascading effect will kick off? 

That's a whole different take I have never heard anyone put out there. I gotta admit, I have seen stupid MFH acquisitions with razor thin margins. Not saying I agree or disagree, just an interesting take on things. 

[Joanne Tsai]

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Carlos Ptriawan - so the fed wants to slow down inflation, lets be clear about that. They believe it will only really stop as unemployment goes up, yes. I also happen to agree since we just need people with less money. THat said you’ll see more layoffs in next 3 month and also early next year. Companies are already planning them. The real question is how much can the market absorb. Even if it hits 5% though it’s still historically low unemployment.  

As to housing there’s still going to be people with money out there so we’ll see how that goes - lot of cash deals still in my local areas. 

@John Carbone Considering how much Cali, NV, AZ and FL drove last recession not super worried about personally running into 20% percent. but then I’m also not going in with no money down (or low money down either) if it actually reaches 2008 levels of 20-30% (which is what you are suggesting) it won’t impact my ability to refinance. All that aside I don’t know where you see the panic selling. What is going to cause people to panic sell and where do you expect them to go? What’s the play in it for them? This isn’t stocks where fear can allow for quick panic sales. I just don’t get what makes you think it will happen and most smart investors will ride it out and if it’s people living in homes where do you expect them to go?

People not seeing it because it's still in a very early trend, but if you see indicator like Corelogic Case-Shiller indices, Zillow Home Estimate,etc...nationwide price reduction already happening since July. The active inventory between Jan-Mar (before QT) and after Jun-Aug(after QT) is drastically increased. This can easily be deciphered after reading the early trend indicator.

....it's just matter of how deep the price reduction would be.

Case-Shiller month-to-month index is already showing August 2022 is equal to Jan 2007 (the peak of GFC 2008 crash) where the index is negative. It took 3 years for market to recover.

 If all it takes to get a person to sell there home for a significant reduction is flashing some graph, from some names that the average person doesn't know from a hole in the ground, why isn't every wholesaler using graphs to get price reductions? 

Home owners don't care about any of that. Home owners sell, based on what makes sense for them, full stop. 

People only sell when the price makes sense to them. All the graphs in the world mean nothing. Anyone who has spent some considerable time in the trenches dealing with potential sellers knows this. They know what they bought it for, what they owe, what they could have got last year and if it's a bunch less your saying today they say F-that, there just gonna wait because it will come back in and they will sell then. That's reality. 

Only buyers do this wining on what homes prices are "supposed" to be. It's true, I never hear a seller ever say that, ever. Sellers say what a home is worth to them, why they have pegged ___ as a fair sale amount. Buyers get righteous and wag there finger demanding sellers understand them and change prices to what they say. 

Divorce, Death, bankruptcy, those things will happen, always have, always will. Some sale will always happen. But in large part, most have options. Relocating, they can just rent if not good time to sell. I know of a little brokerage who happens to manage these exact properties for tens of thousands of those owners today. People-don't-have-to-sell. 

'08', people had to sell, resetting mortgages forced it. Nobody can answer, what-will-force-people-to-sell. No force, people will just not sell, it's that simple. They will stay put, rent it out, maybe STR. They got options, lots of em.

High rates impact buying, that's it. Not 1 home owner in America today said "well, honey, rates are over 7, get packing, we have to sell the home now cause rates are over 7" but guess what, a whole bunch said "hell no were not selling now". 

Are you guaranteeing you will be around here to give updates until the fed pivots and you won’t make excuses when you are wrong? We will just let the numbers do the talking over the next 6-18 months. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

well this escalted quickly, Central banks in asia and the uk did a coordinated intervention in the bond markets this morning. Looks like markets here are pricing in a fed pivot already 😂….we will see if grandpa powell has some sorcery in his toolbox, why would the foreign central banks be doing this if interest rates don’t matter? 

Yes HOLY COW.

BOE Pivot now to restart QE.

https://www.investmentweek.co.... 

It's like Fed vs ROW now..... OMG, never seen this movie before.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

well this escalted quickly, Central banks in asia and the uk did a coordinated intervention in the bond markets this morning. Looks like markets here are pricing in a fed pivot already 😂….we will see if grandpa powell has some sorcery in his toolbox, why would the foreign central banks be doing this if interest rates don’t matter? 

 If central banks are seeing the result of the higher rates and reintroducing quantitative easing while hiking (another first of its kind I believe we didn’t see this in 08 but I could be wrong). and again this isn’t from me, it’s from Bank of England in response to surging bond yield….but sure, you are right…you are the number 1 broker at your firm.

“In a statement Wednesday, the central bank said it was monitoring the “significant repricing” of U.K. and global assets in recent days, which has hit long-dated U.K. government debt particularly hard.”

“Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability. This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy,” the Bank of England said.

Hmm “repricing of assets” due to higher rates……HOUSING????????? Reduction of flow to the “real economy”….. HOUSING????? Do you need it written in crayons? but please reply back to me again with charts that go back to 2012 that you use on clients in your pitch deck showing them “housing never goes down” 

 Still butt hurt over the data I see....... 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

well this escalted quickly, Central banks in asia and the uk did a coordinated intervention in the bond markets this morning. Looks like markets here are pricing in a fed pivot already 😂….we will see if grandpa powell has some sorcery in his toolbox, why would the foreign central banks be doing this if interest rates don’t matter? 

Yes HOLY COW.

BOE Pivot now to restart QE.

https://www.investmentweek.co.... 

It's like Fed vs ROW now..... OMG, never seen this movie before.

 Comparing UK too U.S. is definitively apples too pineapples. 

Did the U.S. recently sever a multi-national trade and currency pact? Yeah, ever heard of a little thing called Brexit? 

I'm not going to waste the breath, point is UK has there own whole bag of shat to deal with and has been in turnoil for a looooong time already. Just because someone now just found out, it's only your awareness to it not that it all just happened now. 

Were you aware they just had massive upheaval in the political structure in the UK? What would happen if U.S. if the Pres. got thrown out of office in a upheaval? yeah, probably some turmoil. 

Are you aware that multiple nations under the crown of England have been giving notice of them leaving the union since the Queens death. Yup. Northern Ireland is talking about reunification with Ireland. India is demanding repatriation of items from the crown. Lots and lots of turmoil. Not to mention there central leader for 70+ years just died and a wet-noodle just came into power. 

Very definition of selective data. CONTEXT people, CONTEXT. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

 Maldives, 1,000%! What a place. 

Check out dollar too Rand! South African safari anyone. 

Only issue is the flights, they've gone way up. Way way up. 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

 Maldives, 1,000%! What a place. 

Check out dollar too Rand! South African safari anyone. 

Only issue is the flights, they've gone way up. Way way up. 

 this is why I never spend frequent flyer miles on domestic travel save up for these times.. back in 09 I went to Costa rica not that the flight was much but got a 2 week all inclusive for less than 4k   5 star to..   Cruise prices are sky high too.

[Michael Margarella]

We have pivoted to self-storage.  Even if there is a crash, and people downsize, those people will have a need for self-storage, as evidenced by storage occupancy rates during past recessions.  

And during inflationary times, our rental rates increase.  We're also able to evaluate our rates, and keep pace with inflation, on a monthly and quarterly basis because of shorter term leases.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

 Maldives, 1,000%! What a place. 

Check out dollar too Rand! South African safari anyone. 

Only issue is the flights, they've gone way up. Way way up. 

 Book on tuesday dude, it's way cheaper.
Sometimes even to book a ticket I have to understand their ticketing algo :) LOL

[Sebastian Marroquin]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Sebastian Marroquin:

While I am 100 percent confident prices will drop 20 percent (assuming rates stay high through 2023), I’m not selling my holdings now. I also never counted my “equity” gained because I knew eventually rates would rise and it would eliminate it.  The reason I won’t sell is because my rentals are making a substantial profit a year, and if I sold I’d have less cash flow, pay capital gains taxes, and high real estate fees to sell. When rates go back down, values will recover. The whole point is, like I’ve said before, if someone doesn’t own a house already they shouldn’t be buying now. I plan on adding to my portfolio next year when the prices drop. In the meantime I’m just accumulating dollars until that happens. If someone offered me a binary wager 18 months out, with fed funds rate between 4-5 (or higher), that median housing values would be down 20 percent I’d take them up on that offer for a substantial amount of money. 

@John Carbone (I agree in what you are saying (here). Sounds well thought out… and of course selling has implications with taxes, etc. 

But we are not talking about a 20% correction here: I said for all of you that think "dooms day" is coming. I am not saying that is you at all. :) I didn't even know you before this tag. lol 

But this post and my comment was alluding to a 'market crash'  

Since RE is local: I'll talk about LA, CA : if homes are $1 million here. And we have $500k in equity and the people that think the crash is coming: think homes will drop by 50% or more. That would mean that they can sell now for $1 million and buy in the next 6 to 12 months for $500k or $400k. So even if you have to pay taxes. Wouldn't that mean that they would be in much better standing then…? 

(well, you don't have to continue this thread bc it sounds that we were on the same page from the beginning and this those not apply to you). 

We are already experiencing a 10% to 20% drop in many places. And again, you can get 20% to 30% below value in almost any market (ie distressed sellers etc ) so, why attempt to time the market. It hasn't worked almost for 99% of investors so why try now???? 

I'm on your side on this. Hold for the long run and make wise decisions. Anyone that buys a home this or next year will be in good shape 10 or 15 years from now. For sure in 20 years :)  and they will likely refinance in the next 3 to 10 years. 

many people just have to get started. and the sooner they do it the faster they can start building wealth. Appreciation, depreciation, principal pay down and a stable payment rather than rent…. blah blah (same thing everyone says, but it is true). 

Owning a business, Real Estate, losing weight, staying healthy and fit, personal finance : all of these have foundational principles that when you follow them, you will do great! 

Anyone that deviates from those principles will either Gain A LOT or LOSE A LOT. 

1. Make money 2. Live below your means 3. Invest in what you know + get educated  4. Be patient 5. Save for emergencies 6. Repeat 

[Sebastian Marroquin]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Sebastian Marroquin:

I'm always curious to know - of the people that think a crash is coming 100%: why not sell your home or homes now and - stash the money under your mattress and then buy for .30 to .50 cents on the dollar? Why not (maybe because we ALL don't really know what's going to happen). 

Because all of my properties are unique, and if I sold, I would have to buy others to replace....just wouldn't make sense.

I am however preparing to jump in when the prices do hit what I believe will be the low….

As a Realtor, do you know how many times I've heard "My property is Unique" (Almost 100% of home owners say that… lol 

Anything that is material (including a unique property is replaceable).  I get what you are saying though… 

If you knew that your properties and the market as a whole was going to drop next year by 50% percent, you are saying you wouldn't sell them to buy other more unique properties? just being the devil's advocate here and I'm kidding… but that is the point of the initial question on this long thread of responses… They are talking about a market crash… not a 10% or 20% normalization or reduction in value. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/2...

well this escalted quickly, Central banks in asia and the uk did a coordinated intervention in the bond markets this morning. Looks like markets here are pricing in a fed pivot already 😂….we will see if grandpa powell has some sorcery in his toolbox, why would the foreign central banks be doing this if interest rates don’t matter? 

Yes HOLY COW.

BOE Pivot now to restart QE.

https://www.investmentweek.co.... 

It's like Fed vs ROW now..... OMG, never seen this movie before.

 Comparing UK too U.S. is definitively apples too pineapples. 

Did the U.S. recently sever a multi-national trade and currency pact? Yeah, ever heard of a little thing called Brexit? 

I'm not going to waste the breath, point is UK has there own whole bag of shat to deal with and has been in turnoil for a looooong time already. Just because someone now just found out, it's only your awareness to it not that it all just happened now. 

Were you aware they just had massive upheaval in the political structure in the UK? What would happen if U.S. if the Pres. got thrown out of office in a upheaval? yeah, probably some turmoil. 

Are you aware that multiple nations under the crown of England have been giving notice of them leaving the union since the Queens death. Yup. Northern Ireland is talking about reunification with Ireland. India is demanding repatriation of items from the crown. Lots and lots of turmoil. Not to mention there central leader for 70+ years just died and a wet-noodle just came into power. 

Very definition of selective data. CONTEXT people, CONTEXT. 

So why are usa bond yields falling (collapsing) today based on this news if it’s so unrelated? 

My whole premise has been with rates high, housing will drop. I don’t predict what the fed will do, I just assume they aren’t lying. If they aren’t lying, the pain I mentioned will ensue. central banks around the world realize this too. 

[Nerissa Minnick]

[Tony Kim]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

Sitting on some dry powder right now as I just downsized my home from Metro Los Angeles at just the right time. Debating whether or not I should pay off my newly acquired primary along with one of my investment properties or wait to see what the market looks like next year. It won't be cheap to wait though as I'll be paying P&I in the meantime. I'm leaning toward holding a few REITs while I wait as they've taken somewhat of a beating lately.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Tony Kim:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

Sitting on some dry powder right now as I just downsized my home from Metro Los Angeles at just the right time. Debating whether or not I should pay off my newly acquired primary along with one of my investment properties or wait to see what the market looks like next year. It won't be cheap to wait though as I'll be paying P&I in the meantime. I'm leaning toward holding a few REITs while I wait as they've taken somewhat of a beating lately.

 Yea, in the moment like this it's good to see which asset class is cheap, normal or expensive.

Real Estate......is either expensive or properly priced
REIT......normal
Tech Stock..... extremely cheap  

If I can time the Fed pivot properly, there is a huge chance the return would be huge for long term investments.
I'd rather buy FNGU , QQQ and FAS ; rather than buying home. 

During 'market crashes' there's more mispricing for a public company than a private deal or real estate. 

Real Estate is holding pretty well so far especially the high cap rate market.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

 Maldives, 1,000%! What a place. 

Check out dollar too Rand! South African safari anyone. 

Only issue is the flights, they've gone way up. Way way up. 

 Book on tuesday dude, it's way cheaper.
Sometimes even to book a ticket I have to understand their ticketing algo :) LOL

 Generally we book via South African sites (.co.za) and we used to get these annual "sales" via South African airways for around x-mas time, was great. We have accounts in SA so just pay via that, in Rand, was lovely.     But SA Airways, well don't get me started there, next thing it will get on about load shedding and on, lol. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Tony Kim:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Joanne Tsai:

Just curious, what everyone is doing with their cash in the bank given everything said above?

 Just take vacation to Maldives,Bali,Phuket while Dollar is extremely strong like this week. Before it reverse.

Once Fed pivots, dollar will enter a bear market again.

Sitting on some dry powder right now as I just downsized my home from Metro Los Angeles at just the right time. Debating whether or not I should pay off my newly acquired primary along with one of my investment properties or wait to see what the market looks like next year. It won't be cheap to wait though as I'll be paying P&I in the meantime. I'm leaning toward holding a few REITs while I wait as they've taken somewhat of a beating lately.

 Yea, in the moment like this it's good to see which asset class is cheap, normal or expensive.

Real Estate......is either expensive or properly priced
REIT......normal
Tech Stock..... extremely cheap  

If I can time the Fed pivot properly, there is a huge chance the return would be huge for long term investments.
I'd rather buy FNGU , QQQ and FAS ; rather than buying home. 

During 'market crashes' there's more mispricing for a public company than a private deal or real estate. 

Real Estate is holding pretty well so far especially the high cap rate market.

 Very true. Hard to ignore something like AT&T at 7%div rate. O is pushing 5%. IVR touching 30% lol, for those who love chasing big returns straight into a trap.     I did start nibbling yesterday, had that urge to start pulling some big triggers but just kept nibbling. Really happy I did that. 

Normally I am R.E. all the way, no brainer, but in emotional sell-off's to insane proportions, it's really tempting to just go all in and say good by to tenants and toilets right. I see more panic sell-off's coming in the market though, especially with volume of "retail" investors in the market now. One more big press down, could make a lot of margin calls, pressing really crazy deep sell-off's, and really great acquisition points. 

Real Estate is and will always be my "Rock of Gibraltar" though. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Nerissa Minnick:

 Exactly! 

But, we are supposed to believe that person at 2.5% lock, there gonna sell-sell-SELL..... and at $680k.