Deal Analysis-SFH Monson,MA

Deal Analysis-SFH Monson,MA

Wholesaler · Three Rivers, MA · Member since 2013 · 77 posts · 4 votes

Hello fellow investors, I wanted to post about a deal I'm analyzing. My intent is to think out loud ,if you will, and hopefully get some advice on my process.

To start I will provide the basic info, then my walk-through and research, followed by my personal analysis. Please feel free to jump in at any time and weigh in, I appreciate the feedback in advance!

asking 109,900
Single Family built in the early 1900's,
1742 Sq feet farmhouse
1.75 acres on a beautiful groomed (flat) lot.
Listed as 3 bed (4th possible)
1 bath (small, remodel)
Large 2 car garage (no reno needed)
car port
Walk In Basement-Concrete
Across from Cemetery
On a Main Rd.

My assessment:
small eat-in kitchen 7x13(full remodel)
L.R. 9x12 (Carpet and paint)
Hallway 12'(Carpet, remove paneling, paint)
Office 6x9 (refinish Hardwood, paint, remove paneling)
Bedroom 1 9x9(carpet, paint)

--The above area of the house is clearly an addition and overall is in good shape. It is also clear that the owner of the house was disabled (wheelchair) and it appears they didn't enter or utilize the rest of the house.

Bed 4/Bonus Room 9x9 (sheetrock, paint, carpet)
Kitchen 2 7x12 (strip, remodel to a mudroom/other area)
Stairs (refinish wood/paint, or carpet)
Bedroom 3 and 4 12x12 (wallpaper removed, paint, carpet)
Upstairs Hall (Paint, sheetrock)
Bonus Room 2 (Cosmetics)
Bonus Room 3 and 4 (Light Cosmetics)

The kitchen is the first room, this is in need of purgo or hardwood flooring and a full overhaul. The living room is off the kitchen and is in good condition. There is a hallway between the kitchen and living room. In the hallway there are two rooms and a bathroom. The first room is a small office with hardwood floors. The second is a bedroom in very good condition. The bathroom is smaller and needs updating.

There is a second bedroom/sitting area with doors at two sides of the room, and walk in closet. This seems to be the first point where the house was sealed off. I know this based on the peeling paint on the ceilings. As you walk through this room it leads to a second kitchen. This kitchen is seriously outdated (original) and would need to be brought down to studs. The flooring is salvageable (I thought about opening it up and creating a large open air porch area, as the screened in porch is outside this room).

Walking upstairs, it occurs to me that there may be lead paint, it seems very old but not in terrible shape. The two rooms at the top of the stairs are identical. Large closets, very old vinyl flooring and walls are in fairly good shape, electrical is newer, but needs updating to ground faults, etc. Walk down hall between the two rooms and there is another set of stairs. At the base of the stairs is a long (14-16') room. You can see the pitch of the roof, like a loft, on both sides of the room. There is a step down to get in and you have to stoop down to get in (kids playroom/storage maybe?). I continue up the stairs and at the top are two identical loft (roof pitch on both sides) style rooms, and I notice all the heat is up on this level (very hot and stuffy). In the basement there was water in small puddles on the floor, but overall it was fairly clean. Newer water heater and electrical panel. I saw water damage in one of the two upstairs bedrooms and a small patch of mold.

I'm not a contractor but my personal assessment of the property is this may be a deal with the right offer. I am thinking I cannot offer more than 60k. My layman's assessment tells me the repairs, especially if there are issues with electrical, will be in the 80-100k+ area. The ARV of the property, according to my RE Agent (team member) is somewhere in the 220-260 range. It's assessed at 185,900 and taxes are $2811.

Seasoned investors, speculators, and new investors alike I would like to hear your thoughts on the property.

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Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
13y

Please, folks, no dealmaking in this forum. Discussion here can be ONLY about analyzing this deal. Offers to buy or sell these properties MUST be in the Marketplace forum.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Wichita Falls, TX · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 603 votes
    13y

    So I'm going to assume that your plan is to flip the house based on what I gather. I have never done a flip but I know people use a pretty simple metric for "quickly" evaluating a property, the 70% ARV rule.

    It's always wise to be conservative when doing your estimates (both on rehab costs and ARV) so let's assume $220k ARV and $100k rehab costs

    $220k * 70% = $154k - $100k Rehab cost = $54k Offer...

    In my opinion a $40k range of ARV isn't acceptable and you should narrow it down so you can have a clear idea of what you can offer and what you can't.

    A more precise flip formula =

    Max Purchase = ARV - Rehab - Fixed Costs - Desired Profit

    But again, you need an accurate ARV! You could however, always offer $55k and see what happens ;)

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Uxbridge, MA · Member since 2012 · 123 posts · 13 votes
    13y

    Just a quick look at houses sold in the last 3 months and whats on the market now I would say you would be looking at a arv of 215-230 not a town I will say I am an expert in.

    You didn't mention it but it looks like some areas are town water/sewer but some are septic.

  • Wholesaler · Three Rivers, MA · Member since 2013 · 77 posts · 4 votes
    13y

    Mehran Kamari Thank you for the analysis and the feedback! I truly appreciate it. I get a little swept up in the details and I need to remember to come back to basics. I will refrain from just throwing a number out and hoping for the best though, I see headaches and heartbreak on the other end of that decision! I'm surprised at myself for not starting with the 65% rule (in case I decide to wholesale the deal).

    Thomas Quinn Thank you, I appreciate the research. My realtor friend is obviously not giving me a tight enough (or thorough enough) analysis of the comparable data. The good news is she is willing to learn the right way and is open to guidance. So we will spend a little more time on comp analysis. A range of 215-230k tells me I should assume 210k, that means my offer would need to be no more than 44k. The house has town water/sewer, so that is a plus. I'll make an offer at 40k, and get my contractor in there to give me a more pointed repair estimate and time frame.

    It's a pretty hefty discount, unfortunately this is an MLS listing, so I cannot make an offer directly to the seller. There are two agents that want to get paid on the deal at this point. That's a situational and a procedural question for another post...

  • Real Estate Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2012 · 12 posts · 7 votes
    13y

    I'll take a stab and say go with your 65% rule, can't hurt but definitely know your rehab cost and leave room for if you have to hold longer than expected if you trying to do a flip. If you pay too much you definitely could end up stuck.

    Are you going to wholesale it to another investor or retail it?

    Also, I would ensure that the cemetery across the street has not hindered other houses near from selling. That could also lead to an issue in my opinion if its too close for comfort. I had a buddy the had a real time selling a house here in Atlanta because of a cemetery being too close for comfort.

  • Real Estate Investor · Buzzards Bay (Bourne), MA · Member since 2012 · 208 posts · 28 votes
    13y

    Jason Brooks
    It's a good start. I would caution on just throwing out a low ball offer. At a listed price over $100 k you might be just wasting time.
    YOu need to nail down the ARV. That is the most important number to start with. Not a range of $220-260 that just won't cut it. If you are wholesaling it then 65% is a good rule to follow to leave yourself some room to get a fee. Who owns it because if it is a bank you just can't assign like you may think. What is your strategy for assigning it? Explain to your realtor team member precisely what you will do to the property to give them a sense of the renovations because it will help in their evaluation. I often share details like stainless steel appliances, granite counter tops, new roof and energy efficient windows, updated landscaping........you get the idea. If you have a contractor go through they need to know the detail of what you want to do as well. Don't just assume all contractors know what to do. Check the attic for mold, check the basement for water and structural components, check the sill plate for rot or termite damage...... I don't want to scare you with some of this stuff but I have experience it all and don't want to see you make any major mistakes. Keep me updated and I will offer feedback when I can. Good Luck

  • Wholesaler · Three Rivers, MA · Member since 2013 · 77 posts · 4 votes
    13y

    JImarcus Blanding I appreciate the feedback, I had the same reservations about the cemetery initially, I have actually passed on this property because I do not believe there is a deal there. Not one I can move on anyway.

    Mike LaCava Thanks for the breakdown Mike. This house is not bank owned, but is being sold as-is. That being said, the exit strategy I was going to use was an assignment, however, with the extensive work that needs to be done, I am not sure I have done a great job on estimating those repairs. At this point I think this may be something I let the buyers I work with know about as a bird dog situation and let them make the final call.

    I actually have found another property that I think may be a much better deal and doesn't need an extensive amount of repair. There are multiple exits considering:

    4Bed/1Bath Ranch 990Sq.Ft
    Purchase Price-90K (Asking 92)
    Repairs-25K
    ARV-170K
    Rent $1200 p/m

    170K ARV * 70%=119K
    119K-25k Repairs=94,000

    It is a bank owned property so I will not be able to move on this one myself, but it is an excellent opportunity for the right investor. The only two major issues I see are mold and water in the basement. All the major systems are new and it needs cosmetics. The plus is it's in a beautiful little neighborhood, close to three schools (walking distance). I do believe I have a winner with this one. I have a ton of pictures and my comps are accurate and at that ARV the sale would be very quick. I am just not sure if my repair estimate is correct. The repairs even if they come to 29K the deal would still work.

    I think this one is a definite winner!

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    13y

    Please, folks, no dealmaking in this forum. Discussion here can be ONLY about analyzing this deal. Offers to buy or sell these properties MUST be in the Marketplace forum.

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