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Updated over 3 years ago, 07/12/2021
Hudson Valley market
Hi all
Does anyone have experience of multifamily buy and hold in the hudson valley area. Say from Beacon/Newburgh up to Saugerties. Would welcome thoughts on capital appreciation, cashflow and prospects for growth in the area
@Frank Gucciardo Not sure what happened to the thread, was it really deleted? weird. I still like all the action I'm seeing in and around Newburgh. Nice projects being built, and some new businesses. Stuff is still moving. Some owner occupants pushing prices by paying more to live-in rather than pure investment.... NYC prices? c'mon, the nicest renovated 2 beds in NB go around 1600/ mo, I've never heard of an NYC studio that cheap in my life. Lol
@Kris Mead the idea of searching for "the next" beacon, or the next anywhere is so tough.. I think when most people benefit from big appreciation it almost happens by accident. I.e they move to Seattle for a job and 5 years later their house tripled. Or buy in Beacon for a little cash flow and it pops off.... By the time you realize what's going on it's probably going to be too late. Unless you get in when it's still sketchy and feels really risky. I feel like people talk about appreciation but act like they're waiting until they know its a guarantee. That's contradictory IMO. What do you think?
I agree with you both prices are high, but I'm seeing that EVERYWHERE. Low inventory, plenty of money, cheap interest rates, and more investors than probably ever before. That's probably the same story from the Bronx up to Albany.
@John Bucci I absolutely agree. When we were shopping for a house to live in 8-10 years ago, all we could afford was Beacon. When my wife and I were growing up, Beacon was garbage so we steered clear. I think of all the duplexes in the 110-160k range that we passed up quite frequently. You are 100% correct in buying when it’s still risky, which is why Newburgh is so attractive. Trust me, I would love to dive in to Newburgh. Not because I think it’s the next Beacon, but because I love the city. Detritus aside, it’s absolutely beautiful locationally and architecturally. Ultimately I am a cashflow guy and I see too much risk as a whole. Beacon at its worst was never as bad as what Newburgh is now, even after some gentrification.
@Frank Gucciardo @Kris Mead @John Bucci Stumbled across your comments after spending some time analyzing Poughkeepsie and was curious if anyone on BP had experience to share. What do you guys think about this market for investing in cash flowing residential rental properties? There are so many markets out there with intense competition and overvalued properties, so I was happy to see finally here that it looks like properties aren't AS over valued as other markets in the northeast that I know. With that being said, I am ready to invest here, but I am finally feeling like I could have an edge over the competition if I can really learn this market. What do you guys think about putting your money to work in Poughkeepise?
It's a good question. I think Poughkeepsie is getting to be on the high-side of values as well. Especially when you look at balancing the risks such as new NY Renter Laws, high taxes, and lack of business growth.
I think there is upside with the new hospital opening up soon, Marist adding a medical teaching program, easy access to metro north, favorable pro-growth government, etc..
I've run some #'s for Poughkeepsie and nothing seemed to cash-flow enough for the risk, however, I've not dug deep into off-market deals, which is where you are going to have to look.
I've pretty much given you a non-answer... I'm sure there is money to be made in and around Poughkeepsie but you will have to dig and work hard for it.
@Eric Hrlbock and @Matt Caven seem to be active in the area and there is a Facebook page for a local REI (I just found this when searching for Eric's name)
If you come up, I'd be interested in walking the area with any other investors out there. I'm right across the Mid-Hudson bridge so it's a 2min drive for me.
Thanks @Frank Gucciardo for your input. Really helpful to be able to add your analysis into my own and determine my own answer. Right now I agree that the upside does not outweigh the risk. I'm going to stay at the drawing board for now. I will reach out if I am ever in your neighborhood!
@Aaron OCallahan Honestly, I couldn’t pull the trigger here and I live in the area. With the unfavorable landlord tenant laws, crazy valuations (IMO), high taxes, utilities and other carrying costs I just can’t see it working right now. Maybe if valuations come down, I could see it working. I do all my investing in the Midwest currently.
Thanks @Kris Mead. It's just awesome to be able to hear from you and Frank who have more experience there than me. It just helps me pivot back to other markets I'm analyzing and save time overall.
Kris - When you invest out of state, are you considering turn key properties, or even partnering with other investors? Or are you going into the market with a team that you've assembled and quarterbacking everything. Would love to hear.
Originally posted by @Aaron OCallahan:
Thanks @Kris Mead. It's just awesome to be able to hear from you and Frank who have more experience there than me. It just helps me pivot back to other markets I'm analyzing and save time overall.
Kris - When you invest out of state, are you considering turn key properties, or even partnering with other investors? Or are you going into the market with a team that you've assembled and quarterbacking everything. Would love to hear.
Hi Aaron, I think it's important to consider your goals when determining if a market makes sense. And keep in mind what works for me, Kris, Frank, or Grant Cardone might not apply to you. You mentioned "putting your money to work" in PK, well if you have a decent job, and want to invest some $ in a place that (probably) will appreciate over the next 10-15 years, and you can get in with historically low interest rates, and make a few $/month or worst case break even, then what are you waiting for? Your tax return will look better from the paper losses as well.
Do you value being able to go spend the weekend in a market, learn it for yourself, and connect with people there? Then choose something close by.
Is the goal to quit your job in 3 years? Then maybe you need higher cash flow, which generally comes with more risk, and more reward. If you're thinking longgg term then the worst thing you can do is wait, wait, wait IMO. Buying an ok deal tomorrow could be better than buying a great deal in 5 years when you consider all factors.
Just a few thoughts and things I consider for myself all the time. Lol
@John Bucci pretty good food for thought you just laid out for me. Not gonna lie my "criteria" is somewhat easily influenced right now. A good takeaway for me is to better define my criteria so that I can let it guide me.
Definitely take the time to define your criteria but don’t hesitate too long to jump in.
I was In classic paralysis analysis mode for three years and missed out on some sweet deals. When I finally pulled the trigger I realized that most of my fears of falling flat on my face were unfounded.
Once I had the first deal under my belt I was itching for the next and next and next.
As a matter of fact, I need my next project or I’ll go nuts doing only my day job.
I stick to small multi family within 30min drive of my house. NY is not great but I have good cash flow and forcing appreciation.
Originally posted by @Aaron OCallahan:
@John Bucci pretty good food for thought you just laid out for me. Not gonna lie my "criteria" is somewhat easily influenced right now. A good takeaway for me is to better define my criteria so that I can let it guide me.
Yeah some sort of criteria based on your goals is always a good idea. Otherwise you won't know a good deal when you see one. And a "good" deal is different for everyone... But definitely agree with Frank, analysis paralysis can be your biggest enemy. Pick a path, put your head down, and go for it.
@Frank Gucciardo @John Bucci I'm going to try and network more with you guys! I'll DM you about that when it makes sense.
Hey guys, I know it has been a little while for comments here. Wanted to get some insight on the market. Is anyone actively buying rentals or flips in here?
@Gary Crawford the market is on fire, multiple offers on just about everything, owner occupants are also buying up foreclosures. The cash coming up from the city is insane.
@Michael Gessner hi folks, any realtors who focus on investing in this group?
@Alissa Kronovet Afre you looking for flips or buy and holds ?
Right now, we are looking for a fixer that we can live in, that might also have a cottage or apartment over the garage for short or long term rental income. Moving east this summer...
@Alissa Kronovet the market here is still on fire, still alot of city folks and mellanials buying the ones that need the work and putting it in them selves. I'm finally going to contract on a property now and have a bunch of offers in on others, each property has had a ton of offers, cash, HML and financing, 1 property I really wanted had a ton of all cash offers well over asking. Big bucks in this market. Hopefully things start to slow down. Where in the hudson valley are you looking to go ?
Hey all, new to BP forum but have been listening to the podcast for a year now. Currently looking for my first multi-fam in the HV.
Anybody do recent deals in Ellenville, Highland Falls, or Saugerties or have thoughts of where those markets are headed?
Everything is priced really high right now but there are off market deals if you work hard enough.
I dont know the exact specifics for each of those locations but have lived in the area my whole life... here is what I'm seeing
Highland Falls - it's tiny.. very small. and it's landlocked between the river and the mountains (it's basically built at the bottom of a 900 foot cliff). I've not seen many deals come up there.
Saugerties - has had it's renaissance and is now flooded with NYC people. deals could be found on the outskirts but I doubt you'll find anything that cash-flows downtown
Ellenville - could have some upside.. I'd look there but it does have high crime, so be wary.
Newburgh - it's a mess
Kingston - deals to be had
Poughkeepsie - deals to be had
good luck
@Frank Gucciardo I agree and disagree with newburgh, the market has done a complete 360 values are sky rocketing in and out of the city, deals are even getting harder to find here as well
Definitely deals to be had. I just locked up 2 triplexes yesterday in poughkeepsie I don’t know if I will wholesale
@Michael Gessner thanks for your response. I’m looking in the belly of the beast - Cold Spring / Garrison.
I have a condo in coldspring that I am supposed to be making an offer on. It’s a fixer
There are still great deals around Middletown Newburgh...
Check out Montgomery Walden maybrook Middletown Goshen scotchtown otisville Fair oaks etc..
Great deals growing areas