Will another economy crash happen soon?

[Jeffery Davis]

Im curious I wanna know what can I do to profit on the rumors i been hearing of another economic crash.

[Joe Villeneuve]

Define the word, "soon", as you are using it in your title...and, rumors are great for entertainment.  That particular rumor has been spread every year for at least the past 12-15 years.

[Walter Ciucevich]

@Jeffery Davis I’m no economist but from my little window I don’t see the same driving forces that caused the last crash. Will we have another correction sometime? Of course, but I don’t think there is another impending doom waiting around the corner.

[David S.]

Everything is so interconnected these days, you don't have to see a catalyst for there to be one. Simple example: ETF's. It used to be mutual funds where there was a day long redemption period, now it's effectively real time. It only takes so much selling pressure to trigger stops, spill to margin calls, reduce consumer confidence, and on it goes. Typically bear markets on Wall Street start before there's an obvious catalyst. That to say, you don't need an obvious one at all. 

What I do know is that historically economic expansions don't tend to last as long as this one already has; there always seems to be a significant pull back. Could it be different this time? I do suppose it could, but I do think it's wise to stay nimble and not lever up too much at this point in time. I wouldn't want to fully finance a turn key property here but would rather buy with 30% down and make sure it has at least 10% easy equity. 

[Jeffery Davis]

@David Smith I have been reading alot and they keep saying its possible due to the problems we are having with trading with other nations. Im just looking to find a way to capatalize on it.

[David S.]

I'm uncomfortable to admit it but I'm with @Joe Villeneuve on this one. (I kid Joe) If you're looking for market commentary on a catalyst for the next recession you're wasting your time. There's some good names out there to read up on like John Hussman, Roubini, etc who have a lot more depth to give on such catalysts, but even they're wrong most of the time (but still worth a read!)

I will say there's plenty of catalysts out there; Stretched labor market, high corporate debt, overvalued assets, massive government debt on almost all levels, geopolitical instability, failing pension funds, political uncertainty, and on it goes. Not sure why you're looking for the last catalyst to trigger the next round of contraction... that's usually not the case.

[David S.]

One other thing to consider; profit is relative. Sometimes it's ok to take a hit, so long you're not the guy holding the shortest straw. Look for stable assets; basic housing will always be desired, high end luxury not always. 

[Blair Poelman]

The health of the economy is arguable, the validity of previously used indicators is arguable.  Everything is arguable because times have changed and our economy and the regulations are all very different compared to the early 2000's.

There will be another crash.  Nobody knows how soon it will happen or how bad it will get.  Personally I think it's gonna be a doozy, and I've heard economists and analysts say this time things are different - followed by those same people saying the most terrifying thing you could hear a financial analyst say is "this time things are different".

[Joe Villeneuve]

Originally posted by @David S.:

I'm uncomfortable to admit it but I'm with @Joe Villeneuve on this one. (I kid Joe) If you're looking for market commentary on a catalyst for the next recession you're wasting your time. There's some good names out there to read up on like John Hussman, Roubini, etc who have a lot more depth to give on such catalysts, but even they're wrong most of the time (but still worth a read!)

I will say there's plenty of catalysts out there; Stretched labor market, high corporate debt, overvalued assets, massive government debt on almost all levels, geopolitical instability, failing pension funds, political uncertainty, and on it goes. Not sure why you're looking for the last catalyst to trigger the next round of contraction... that's usually not the case.

 LOL.  OK, two beers I owe you.

There are a lot of ways I could say this, but here is the one I chose...and I let all that read this read between the lines.

These "experts", would all make it to the MLB Hall of Fame.  Most batters in the HOF, have a lifetime Batting Average less than .300.  That means that some of the greatest ball players of all time, made outs over 70% of the time they hit.  In other words they were "wrong", at the plate, of 70% of their AB's.