Can anyone comment on the short term rental market in Maui?

[Robert Silvernagel]

Hey guys, 

My wife and I are under contract on a condo in Kihei that is vacation rental approved. It took a lot of research and contemplation before I was able to convince myself that paying a 30-40% premium for a condo in a complex with vacation rental capabilities was worth the investment. I ran all of the numbers and it seems to be pretty safe from a cashflow perspective. I pulled data from VRBO for similar 2br/2ba  units in the complex and by my calculations the nightly rate on average would come to $208. Based on $450 a month for electricity, cable, internet, and on-site agent (required by law) the numbers look good to me. Is there anything else I should know? I plan to pass the cleaning fees on to the guests, as well as the 14.5% in resort taxes. 

I do worry a bit that the market could shift downwards, but I think I justified it to myself by saying 'in an economic recession, people will still travel, they just won't want to pay $800 a night to stay at the Grand Wailea.'  Should there be a recession I'm estimating that I'll drop from 75-80% occupancy down to around 40-50%. It does feel like there is likely a major market correction coming, but due to limited inventory of vacation-rentable units in Maui I feel like I should be somewhat more protected from the effects of said recession. What does everyone else think? I am all for taking risks in life, but we also have a 1 year old son now and I don't want to jeopardize the life we've built so far. I know  @Brandon Turner now lives in Maui and I was hoping you might be able to weigh in on this. I have lost a lot of sleep over it, and am actually about to board a plane to head to Maui to stay in the unit for a few days. I plan to make the call after seeing it in person.

Thanks guys for the advice.

Mahalo!

Rob