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Updated over 8 years ago, 04/04/2016

User Stats

34
Posts
7
Votes
Lance Knapp
  • Commercial Real Estate Analyst
  • Los Angeles, CA
7
Votes |
34
Posts

Is Now a Good Time To Invest? (First Time Buyer in LA, CA)

Lance Knapp
  • Commercial Real Estate Analyst
  • Los Angeles, CA
Posted

I have looked at 50-100 deals in my area of West Los Angeles. It is difficult to find properties that are cash flow positive after expenses and debt service. Basically, the deals do not look very attractive. I am curious to know what experienced investors think of today's markets and whether or not now is a good time to buy. It worries me that we have had years of quantitative easing and low interest rates. I don't want to be the fool who buys at the wrong time when attractive opportunities could be around the corner.

Thank you for the help!! - Lance

User Stats

224
Posts
266
Votes
David Greene
Agent
  • Real Estate Broker
  • San Francisco Bay Area, CA
266
Votes |
224
Posts
David Greene
Agent
  • Real Estate Broker
  • San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Replied

@Andrew Fuerstenberger

Hey Andrew,

I don't use tools or websites to locate the properties I buy.  I use people.  I typically look for talented and driven real estate agents, train them to look for what I want, and then evaluate what they bring me and write about 20 offers a week.  The longer we work an area the more efficient the process becomes, it's usually kinda messy and inefficient at first, but that's ok.

I have done deals with people from BP but those are usually flips or other investments. I'm using a wholesaler at the MLS in Jacksonville. Will be starting up the same thing in Georgia soon. Feel free to reply on here or PM me if you'd like anything more specific, always love to help!

User Stats

3,454
Posts
2,561
Votes
David Krulac
  • Mechanicsburg, PA
2,561
Votes |
3,454
Posts
David Krulac
  • Mechanicsburg, PA
Replied

I've bought and sold 900 + properties for my own inventory.  I'm also a buyer, the only difference between a buyers market and a sellers market is the price I pay for real estate.  tweet that

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User Stats

6
Posts
4
Votes
David Manshoory
  • Los Angeles, CA
4
Votes |
6
Posts
David Manshoory
  • Los Angeles, CA
Replied

@David Greene thanks for the compliment. And thank you for offering to share your contacts. I'm not looking to buy now, but was simply interested to see how other investors source their deals. I spoke to one investor the other day who lives in San Francisco who has purchased 100+ properties out-of-state in one east coast market over the last 3 years - all site unseen - through Auction.com and Hubzu.com. I was wondering if your method was similar.

Thanks for the reply!

User Stats

224
Posts
266
Votes
David Greene
Agent
  • Real Estate Broker
  • San Francisco Bay Area, CA
266
Votes |
224
Posts
David Greene
Agent
  • Real Estate Broker
  • San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Replied

@David Manshoory

gotcha.  No, I don't use sites like those at all. My guess is that investor has boots on the ground checking those out.

If you're looking for a style like that, I'd recommend checking out some turnkey companies. I've heard good things about Memphisinvest.

User Stats

29
Posts
9
Votes
Connie Stainbrook
  • San Diego, Ca
9
Votes |
29
Posts
Connie Stainbrook
  • San Diego, Ca
Replied

I am currently in the process of selling my duplex in Hermosa Beach, Ca.   I bought it for 835,000 in 2002.  I am hoping to get 2,100.000 for it.   I would say that during the last down turn my property really held tight it dropped maybe 7% while other properties I owned out of state dropped 50% and still have not fully recovered.    My Hermosa Beach property not only recovered but went through the roof.   During the last 14 years we paid down our loan to 600K via rents.     I am in the situation of trying to decide  where to 1031 my funds into.   My goal is to diversify into some higher cashflow properties (want to semi retire)  and park some of the funds into areas that will appreciate.    

I would love to hear about what areas you are looking at?     I like Atlanta seems to be growing and can get good cash flow.    But don't want to put all my money there.  What do you BP members think of Phoenix, AZ?  Fresno, Ca, Twentynine Palms, CA.   Keeping hearing about Texas but can't seem to find the right area of Texas.    Would love to hear what out of state areas are you currently investing in?

User Stats

2
Posts
0
Votes
Derrick Stewart
  • Twentynine Palms, CA
0
Votes |
2
Posts
Derrick Stewart
  • Twentynine Palms, CA
Replied

Currently living in 29  palms. Its a good market depending on what type of investing you want to do.

Account Closed
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
1,698
Votes |
3,894
Posts
Account Closed
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
Replied

Connie, why kill the Golden Goose?  Cash out refi and keep your high appreciating property and squander the proceeds on cash faux.

Account Closed
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
1,698
Votes |
3,894
Posts
Account Closed
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
Replied

Connie, Atlanta has been growing since the 70's!  Unfortunately it is growing out so the great supply keeps the demand down.  

http://www.usa.com/atlanta-ga.htm

What about this?

Account Closed
  • Investor
  • San Jose, CA
3,331
Votes |
2,097
Posts
Account Closed
  • Investor
  • San Jose, CA
Replied

Lance,

Not sure if your company shares data with you, but I know Marcus and Millichap, Cushman Wakefield and CBRE share data with their associates.  I would expect your company to do the same, but I could be wrong.

When people see I started investing in 2009, everyone says I got lucky.  They didn't see what I went through to get there.  As a Roman Philosopher Seneca said "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."  Well, I cluelessly bought my first rental in 1999 for $330k with negative cash-flow.  It's worth about $950k today, and I still own it.  That's about $3,000/month worth of appreciation in @Account Closed's terms not including principal pay down, and rent has doubled since.  :>)

When I attended my graduate school in 1999-2001, my favorite professor said something that stuck on my mind. He said "if I look on your night stand, I can tell you what you should be doing with your life."  I went home and saw 3 real estate books on my nightstand.  Not only I read real estate books, I analyzed local and out of state deals on my laptop night in and night out.  I flew to several states between 2000-2004 to check out real estate because the numbers looked so good on the spreadsheet.  Every state that I went to, I talked to local folks and relative of friends to get a feel for the market.  Luckily, I didn't buy anything.  So don't think I didn't pay my out of state tuition.  

Came back to the Bay Area with a pocket full of dreams and realized the grass is not greener on the other side, I kept analyzing deals.  It seems like everyone was getting rich with real estate except me.  Every property I analyzed was having $1k negative cash-flow and 4-plexes were negative $1,500-$2,000/month.  What to do?  Sometimes, the best thing to do is doing nothing.

2008 and 2009 came and all the stars lined up.  Whatever economic indicators you could think of, I've looked at and studied them. My favorite indicator depicted that the housing market in the Bay Area overshot to the downside.  When comparing the data going back to 1970, real estate in the Bay Area has never been this cheap.  Having the Great Depression as a template and several indicators mimic the Great Recession, I realized it was a super economic cycle where this event only happens once in a lifetime, I decided to go all-in.

It wasn't easy.  I told my parents and 4 siblings, everyone thought I was nuts.  I told my in-law parents and wife's siblings, and everyone thought I was crazy.  This is 2009 when the sky was falling.  Everyone was losing their job or concerning about it.  My wife was the only supportive person.  She said she believed I would be good at it.  

Fast forward a few short years, everyone in the family said quitting my job was the best decision I've ever made for both sides of the family.  All siblings and in-laws now own rental properties and have a house that they bought dirt cheap during the Great Recession.  Prop 13 anyone?

I've developed new niches and strict investment parameters along the way.  As I said above, I'll buy for the right price, and I'll sell for the right price regardless of where we are in the cycle of the housing market.  My break even is about 30% vacancy.  I budget for up to 20% rent reduction in my analysis.  I stress test my portfolio to be sure I can survive the next economic downturn.

As my investment parameters are quite strict, I don't buy every deal puts in front of me. I only buy deals where I can get 100% ROI on my investment, which includes down payment, closing costs, reserve and rehab costs. Anything less must be a prime piece of real estate with way below market rents where I can push them up.

People say you cannot predict future.  Well, J Martin is the only person that drank the cool-aid.  He has just retired from his government job at 31.  If history is any indication, there's a high probability that the housing market in the Bay Area will peak in summer 2017, and the next housing bottom is 2020-2022.   

My biz partner, who's also on BP, read one of my old posts I wrote in 2013 on another forum, where I stated the same prediction as above.  He was shocked that I had the foresight.  I don't.  I just believe history tends to rhyme itself. We'll see how it rhymes this time.

Now you know where I stand on the current housing market, the decision to buy or not to buy is up to you.  I'm still buying and selling, but I'm much more selective now.  

Best of luck.

User Stats

29
Posts
9
Votes
Connie Stainbrook
  • San Diego, Ca
9
Votes |
29
Posts
Connie Stainbrook
  • San Diego, Ca
Replied

    I appreciate your feedback.  It has been a golden goose..considering my initial investment was $85,000.    Right now I have about a $1,800 positive cashflow monthly.  Rents really didn't go up that much over the last decade.  I want to semi retire.    Refinancing I would be in the negative then.  Also with my debt to income ratio not to many banks are anxious to lend to me.    I seriously doubt I could get a loan for refinancing especially since I am self-employed.     Most my other properties are running in slight negatives.   My thoughts are to cash out and get higher cashflow so I can go to part-time work.... I am tired.    I would like to do 50% cashflow and 50% in appreciating markets.   But I can't seem to figure out which markets to invest in.  I am almost tempted to cash out and put it under my mattress and wait for the next market decline.    

    I bought a 4 plex in Atlanta not to long ago and it has appreciated nicely and I am getting 10% ROI in rents (paid cash for the building). That's why I liked Atlanta. But I could have just gotten lucky. My business partner lives there and helped me pick it out.

    I am interested in hearing what markets other people are looking to invest in and why?    

User Stats

690
Posts
304
Votes
Billy Smith
  • Shawnee Mission, KS
304
Votes |
690
Posts
Billy Smith
  • Shawnee Mission, KS
Replied

I am lock and loaded to buy another rental in metro KC the market.The market is reached levels not seen for a while all good houses are snap up very quick .

.I agree you have to look at it in a different light future growth be it rent and property value .The rentals,starter homes are being bought up I think mostly be home owners. I feel the investors are watching this from the side lines at least a good chunk are.

User Stats

32
Posts
22
Votes
Jack Slattery
  • Investor
  • Springfield , OH
22
Votes |
32
Posts
Jack Slattery
  • Investor
  • Springfield , OH
Replied

@Dan H., thank you for your advice. I guess I said it wrong when I said I had no equity in my homes. What I ment was none of my money save for repair money (which I get to deduct) is in my homes.  I suppose I would be in trouble if some major repairs needed done on a few properties at once such as fires or bad weather. I think insurance would take care of those problems. I could also do a line of credit and hold it in reserve for  major repairs. I suppose there is some risk in all investments, even RE.

@Wes Brand thank you on the @ thingy

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User Stats

32
Posts
22
Votes
Jack Slattery
  • Investor
  • Springfield , OH
22
Votes |
32
Posts
Jack Slattery
  • Investor
  • Springfield , OH
Replied

@Dan H. I like your idea of refinancing the 1st mortgage but how do you do it? My problem is I have to "bundle" because of multiple homes. I have never tried to refinance a "bundle". Maybe I need to speak with a banker about this. Thank you for your imput.

User Stats

62
Posts
29
Votes
Austin Stack
  • Investor
  • Atlanta, GA
29
Votes |
62
Posts
Austin Stack
  • Investor
  • Atlanta, GA
Replied

Robert Kiyosaki, T. Harv Eker, Trump... all say that NOW is the best time to buy real estate. Does not matter the season as long as you hold onto it for long enough. Over time real estate will always go up in value.

:)

User Stats

179
Posts
85
Votes
Jake Knight
  • Investor
  • San Jose, CA
85
Votes |
179
Posts
Jake Knight
  • Investor
  • San Jose, CA
Replied

@Account Closed thank you for sharing your story. Though demand is still very strong here in the Bay Area, it may very well let up in the next couple years. It's smart to be cognizant of that and stress test your portfolio. We cannot have short-term memory and forget how markets have cycled in the past.

Account Closed
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
1,698
Votes |
3,894
Posts
Account Closed
  • Investor
  • Honolulu, HI
Replied
Originally posted by @Connie Stainbrook:

    I appreciate your feedback.  It has been a golden goose..considering my initial investment was $85,000.    Right now I have about a $1,800 positive cashflow monthly.  Rents really didn't go up that much over the last decade. 

 That $1800 cash flow would buy almost $400,000 mortgage.  You'd still be almost 50% loan to value.  $400,000 to invest for cash flow, still keep the Golden Goose AND the low Prop 13 tax base.  If you exchange for lower value CA properties you'll have so much of your profits going to higher property taxes.

User Stats

5,879
Posts
6,781
Votes
Dan H.
Pro Member
  • Investor
  • Poway, CA
6,781
Votes |
5,879
Posts
Dan H.
Pro Member
  • Investor
  • Poway, CA
Replied

@Connie Stainbrook

I agree with @Account Closed on the value of keeping a CA appreciated property due to prop 13.  I have a home that I pay ~30% of the property tax as my neighbors who have purchased recently (I purchased in 1992).  I have no property with the Prop 13 tax delta that your property has.  If I did I would look very hard about selling it and any decision to sell would take into account the lost value of the prop 13 benefit.  You are likely being taxed at less than $1M on a property worth $2.1M for an annual tax savings of $13,750 (I used 1.25% tax level which will be close to accurate).  So you are saving over $1K/month in Prop 13 tax savings.  You should calculate that into any decision to sell.  If the numbers still indicate that it is best for you to sell, then sell.

I have created posts (responses on threads) on the benefits of investing in So Cal.  I include the Prop 13 benefit.  The family had a property in Alabama that the property taxes went up faster than the rents significantly reducing our cash flow.  If we sold then it would have been great but we sold after getting hit by 2 hurricanes and the property loosing much of the value that we had previously been taxed on.

I just want to be sure that you include your Prop 13 benefit in any decision to sell the property.

Good luck

  • Dan H.
  • User Stats

    5,879
    Posts
    6,781
    Votes
    Dan H.
    Pro Member
    • Investor
    • Poway, CA
    6,781
    Votes |
    5,879
    Posts
    Dan H.
    Pro Member
    • Investor
    • Poway, CA
    Replied
    Originally posted by @Jack Slattery:

    @Dan H. I like your idea of refinancing the 1st mortgage but how do you do it? My problem is I have to "bundle" because of multiple homes. I have never tried to refinance a "bundle". Maybe I need to speak with a banker about this. Thank you for your imput.

     I own 10 investment units in 5 properties (my family has another 7 investment units in 3 properties) so I can still get traditional financing.  So I have never needed to bundle but I do believe you have the right idea to bundle.  I suspect there are far better experts on this subject than me.   Hopefully a qualified expert will respond.

    Good luck

  • Dan H.
  • User Stats

    3,975
    Posts
    2,728
    Votes
    Matt R.
    • Sherman Oaks, CA
    2,728
    Votes |
    3,975
    Posts
    Matt R.
    • Sherman Oaks, CA
    Replied

    @Connie Stainbrook Congrats that is outstanding. I am sure that felt risky in 2002 or ?  I am curious if there was a historical likelihood that duplex will have a 3 mil number infront value next decade would you still want to exit?

    I have known others in your same shoes to go the NNN route when they fully retire. Your chunk to invest after sale is also near enough to make six figures with dividend reit.This could also gain equity. I posted earlier the LA market is #1 in nation for total returns since 2000 just thought I will post that fact again in case you missed. Obviously you have experienced this firsthand. I am not sure where Atlanta ranks but not in the top 3 as we know that is #2 SF and # 3 SD .

    User Stats

    29
    Posts
    9
    Votes
    Connie Stainbrook
    • San Diego, Ca
    9
    Votes |
    29
    Posts
    Connie Stainbrook
    • San Diego, Ca
    Replied

    Investor from Honolulu, Hawaii

    Ideally refinancing and cashing out 400K would be great.    I don't think I can refinance because of my debt to income.   I have excellent credit but that doesn't seem to be enough.   The banks only take 75% of my rents into account when calculating debt to income.   That's my problem right there.    So refinancing really isn't an option unless I went from my 30 year fixed into an adjustable loan and that scares me due to potential interest rate hikes.     

    I appreciate everyone's input it has given me some ideas of what I need to think about before investing new markets.

    User Stats

    29
    Posts
    9
    Votes
    Connie Stainbrook
    • San Diego, Ca
    9
    Votes |
    29
    Posts
    Connie Stainbrook
    • San Diego, Ca
    Replied

    @Matt R. Actually it wasn't scary at all at that time. Real-estate in the area was climbing crazy fast. That was 1 of 3 properties I bought between 2000 and 2003 in Hermosa Beach. I bought that property in 2002 the identical unit next to mine sold for 1.3 mil within 18 months. I sunk every dime I had into those properties knowing I was making a good investment. I sold the other two properties after living in them for 2 years and not having to pay taxes on capital gain. Knowing that was a dumb idea, but still did it anyway....greed. Invested in other properties outside of California lost my shirt during the downturn. So this is now my little nest egg. As for it being worth 3.1 in 10 years.... I still can't absorb that it is worth 2 mil today. It only collects 7,000 in rents could probably get $7,600 but still who can invest in a 2 mil property with such a negative ROI? It boggles my mind. I almost feel like I need to sell before people realize it is ridiculous. Maybe that is because now I don't live in Hermosa and I forget what a great place it really is to live in. :-)

    User Stats

    3,975
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    Matt R.
    • Sherman Oaks, CA
    2,728
    Votes |
    3,975
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    Matt R.
    • Sherman Oaks, CA
    Replied

    @Connie Stainbrook Right on. I think we can understand cash flow has less to with actual value in some choice areas. Sometimes these can be torn down for condos and townhouse conversions stuff so the intrinsic land value becomes a factor. Also how many duplexes for sale are in Hermosa? Maybe rare and there could also be a certain amount of safety in some areas folks pay a premium for. I used to live at Esplanade and AVE B, and yes these are nice locales. Good luck and you don't need of that much in HB.

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    User Stats

    130
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    102
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    Lance Robinson
    • Investor
    • Scottsdale, AZ
    102
    Votes |
    130
    Posts
    Lance Robinson
    • Investor
    • Scottsdale, AZ
    Replied
    Originally posted by @Lance Knapp:

    I have looked at 50-100 deals in my area of West Los Angeles. It is difficult to find properties that are cash flow positive after expenses and debt service. Basically, the deals do not look very attractive. I am curious to know what experienced investors think of today's markets and whether or not now is a good time to buy. It worries me that we have had years of quantitative easing and low interest rates. I don't want to be the fool who buys at the wrong time when attractive opportunities could be around the corner.

    Thank you for the help!! - Lance

     1. Nice name.

    2. I have a buddy that invests heavily in LA and he saves up and puts a huge chunk down so it is cash flow positive enough to be "safe." He also goes 15 year loan and is working the pay off as fast as possible play. He owns a few buildings there. You are also at a higher end of the market cycle (just my opinion) so it may just not be the right time for your situation..

    PS I used to own a 4plex in LA that I sold at the end of the last year.

    User Stats

    3,975
    Posts
    2,728
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    Matt R.
    • Sherman Oaks, CA
    2,728
    Votes |
    3,975
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    Matt R.
    • Sherman Oaks, CA
    Replied

    I think there is little doubt the smart money invest in LA. Those who look for long term investments to pan out handsomely. Smart money could translate to mean big money too. Some guys/gals got killed last GFC still and for some it was a very mild bump along the way depending on location. 

    I can say right now, being a little guy, I get out bid and that's a totally normal thing. I have been tracking those I lost and every single one is killing it 6 months to a year later. These are mostly break even initial cash flows this whole time but the equity gains in a year are more flow than many others get in a decade or decades even. 

    I have an offer in I just signed a minute ago over full price. I actually do not expect it to be accepted. That's the current game here. I am selling one full price, that fell out of escrow.  No problem, I just raised the price and got full price again. I am almost hoping it falls out again, yeah so I can raise the price again and so on. I understand the fundamentals in LA and they are favorable for most no matter how you want to slice it. 

    User Stats

    231
    Posts
    260
    Votes
    Matt Mason
    • Investor
    • Los Angeles, CA
    260
    Votes |
    231
    Posts
    Matt Mason
    • Investor
    • Los Angeles, CA
    Replied
    Originally posted by @Connie Stainbrook:

    @Matt R. Actually it wasn't scary at all at that time. Real-estate in the area was climbing crazy fast. That was 1 of 3 properties I bought between 2000 and 2003 in Hermosa Beach. I bought that property in 2002 the identical unit next to mine sold for 1.3 mil within 18 months. I sunk every dime I had into those properties knowing I was making a good investment. I sold the other two properties after living in them for 2 years and not having to pay taxes on capital gain. Knowing that was a dumb idea, but still did it anyway....greed. Invested in other properties outside of California lost my shirt during the downturn. So this is now my little nest egg. As for it being worth 3.1 in 10 years.... I still can't absorb that it is worth 2 mil today. It only collects 7,000 in rents could probably get $7,600 but still who can invest in a 2 mil property with such a negative ROI? It boggles my mind. I almost feel like I need to sell before people realize it is ridiculous. Maybe that is because now I don't live in Hermosa and I forget what a great place it really is to live in. :-)

    Just curious if you are hesitant to go out of state again after your earlier experience?  Perhaps you should have met Bob Bowling 10 years ago.  In some ways, despite the initial higher cash on cash return it may be more risky, especially given the distance factor.  Nothing wrong with investments in different states, I just think you are inherently at a disadvantage not being a local and that is never a position I'd want to be in.