Validating my ARV - Will it appraise?

[Scott Ginther]

Hi everyone!

I've done a lot of research and practiced valuating properties and analyzing deals for about two years. I've read "The Book On Rental Property Investing" and have a pretty solid foundation of real estate investing...in theory. Now it's time for me to put it into practice for the first time.

I've found a house (2bd/1ba, ~950 sq. ft.) in Athens, GA blocks from UGA. The house has been on the market for 150+ days and has already been completely gutted. The plan is to use a hard money lender that I've found to fund both the purchase (85%) and the rehab (90%). I'm planning on a full BRRRR - my FIL who is a GC and home inspector with 30 yrs. experience will do the rehab. My wife and I plan on renting out to college students mostly. The house may not cashflow right away within the first 3 years, but I'm confident that I can more than make up that difference from the refinance. Cap Rate is 12.5% and CoCR is exponential

However, the whole plan/numbers only pencil out if the house appraises at the correct ARV. The lot is tiny, not much room for expansion - maybe add a small bathroom. My questions then are:

1.) How do I best estimate the ARV?
- Off square footage of the house alone? Off the tax assessor's valuation of the building + land?
2.) Is the property too small or already "maxed out" for potential value-add?