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Updated over 9 years ago on . Most recent reply

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Brian Tremaine
  • Investor
  • San Jose, CA
17
Votes |
66
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Forecast of RE market? Thoughts?

Brian Tremaine
  • Investor
  • San Jose, CA
Posted

I'd be very interested in everyone's thoughts on where the RE market is heading in the next 10 years, primarily in current hot markets.

The SF Bay Area, as well as others, have shown a dramatic increase in both market value and rents in the last 5 years (2x?). With interest rates forecast to raise slowly in the next 10 years & the government GPD forecast to not hit 3% for 10 years I don't think wages are going to be climbing very fast. If this is the case then in areas such as the Bay Area I think SFR rents should probably plateau. Likewise I think SFR market values will plateau.

I think in the long run, since the job growth is still okay in this area I think both rents & MV won't decline but also will not be seeing the record increases of the last 5 years. 

Does this scenario seem plausible?

Given the current high values of the area I would then think it is better to hold onto property and bring the rents up to market rather than take on debt to buy additional property.

Thoughts?

Thanks all !

Most Popular Reply

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1,580
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1,619
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Amit M.
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco, CA
1,619
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1,580
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Amit M.
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco, CA
Replied

my 2 cents:

1- WRT affordability, this metric becomes more and more decoupled from housing prices in the Bay Area. First, many buyers are trade up buyers and already have a lot of equity in existing properties. Secondly, many who buy have very high incomes, tech stock success, or both.  basically hardly any blue collar people outside the region decide to move to core Bay Area cities- it's almost only well educated, well paid professionals. And dual income couples are still a potent economic force. 

2- it's a very good question if housing prices will simply slow down and flatline in a couple years. We tend to be boom/bust here: lots of money going into all sorts of start ups, good times rolling, home prices on a tear, then boom, the party's over (at least for awhile :). I personally feel San Francisco (the city) has already taken all the gains it could possibly deserve in this cycle. So if fall 2015 thought 2016 show more outsized gains, it is more likely that we will have a housing correction. If we start flat lining (meaning modest 3-5%ish)* price growth, then we stand a better chance of having a smooth correction in a couple years. 

* yeah that's how we roll here; double digit appreciation is expected during good times. 3-5% is considered meh, flat ;)

3- as mentioned above, buying marginal deals now has risks!  I was lucky and nabbed a couple of great deals last year, but they were work to find. This year I have seen almost zero good ones in SF (listed deals that is.)  if I buy again this year or next, the bar is set pretty high, as I'm determined not to buy marginal stuff. As mentioned above, why screw up a sweet portfolio with a crappy money pit!  Cashflow (especially in SF!) is a beautiful thing, so I'm keeping my more conservative cap on. 

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